Does repression work

Measuring repression’s effect on protest using an instrumental variable model

Dados Bibliográficos

ID12897302
AutoresVictor Asal (0000-0001-7614-4869, University at Albany, State University of New York), Joseph M Brown (0000-0001-6105-4799, University of Massachusetts Boston, autor correspondente)
Ano2020
Volume15
Fascículo1
Páginas2-16
Data de publicação2020-09-16
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessNão
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoDynamics of Asymmetric Conflict (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 1746-7594 • E-ISSN: 1746-7586
EditoraTaylor & Francis (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/17467586.2020.1821073
OpenAlexW3093470592
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas3
Referências citadas17

Protest and repression are reciprocally related. Governments respond with repression when faced with challenges to their rule. Dissidents choose their strategies, turning out to protest or staying home, based on the state’s behaviour. But what effect does repression have on protestors’ decisions? The existing literature is of two minds on this issue. One school of thought argues that repression suppresses protest. A second school of thought argues that repression increases protest by inducing public backlash against the regime. Efforts to adjudicate these claims are complicated by the endogeneity between protest and repression. We use US economic development assistance as an instrument for government repression. Governments seeking US development assistance eschew the repression of protestors. An instrumental variable analysis of the MAROB Middle East dataset shows that repression (instrumented on US development aid commitments) discourages protest by a dissident group. The likelihood of protest decreases by roughly 20% in a given year if the group is repressed. The need for an instrumental variable model is highlighted by the fact that uninstrumented regressions show the opposite effect, giving the spurious appearance of backlash. Unfortunately for protestors, the appearance is deceiving. Repression works

Econometrics · Economics · Endogeneity · Instrumental variable · Political economy · Political science · Psychological repression · Asian Geopolitics and Ethnography · Political Conflict and Governance · Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East