Measurement matters
Understanding China’s growth rates
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12917848 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Daili Wang (corresponding author) |
| Year | 2016 |
| Volume | 9 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 65-74 |
| Publication date | 2016-01-02 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | China Economic Journal (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1753-8963 • E-ISSN: 1753-8971 |
| Publisher | Routledge (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/17538963.2015.1132816 |
| OpenAlex | W2264909933 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 3 |
The recent decline in year-on-year (y/y) growth rate has sparked fear of a China ‘hard landing’. However, the literature found that y/y measures can be inadequate in catching cyclical turning points, especially when, as now in China, a short, sharp deceleration has occurred but bottomed out within the past 12 months. We regard three-month/three-month seasonally adjusted annualized growth rates (QSAA) as a better leading indicator for identifying patterns than y/y growth rates given that QSAA not only irons out very short-term volatility by taking a three-month moving average, it summarizes information from the previous six months (y/y indicators only exhibit the latest data point and information 12 months ago). Based on a sample of six important Chinese economic indicators, we find the new measure shows a different growth trajectory relative to that measured by the y/y growth rate. Thus, policy makers may find the new measures complementary to the widely used y/y growth rates in decision making
Agricultural economics · Annual growth · China · Econometrics · Economics · Geography · Percentage point · Sample (material · Volatility (finance · Economic Growth and Productivity · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |