On the use and misuse of climate change projections in international development
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12929124 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Hannah Nissan (0000-0002-5340-6739, Earth Island Institute, corresponding author), Lisa Goddard (0000-0001-9452-147X, Earth Island Institute), Erin Coughlan De Perez (0000-0001-7645-5720, Climate Centre), John Furlow (Earth Island Institute), Walter Baethgen (0000-0003-2052-2052, Earth Island Institute), Madeleine C Thomson (0000-0002-3564-6421, Earth Island Institute), Simon J Mason (0000-0003-2951-0533, Earth Island Institute) |
| Year | 2019 |
| Volume | 10 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Publication date | 2019-03-14 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1757-7780 • E-ISSN: 1757-7799 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1002/wcc.579 |
| OpenAlex | W2922381987 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 14 |
| References cited | 92 |
Climate resilience is increasingly prioritized by international development agencies and national governments. However, current approaches to informing communities of future climate risk are problematic. The predominant focus on end‐of‐century projections neglects more pressing development concerns, which relate to the management of shorter‐term risks and climate variability, and constitutes a substantial opportunity cost for the limited financial and human resources available to tackle development challenges. When a long‐term view genuinely is relevant to decision‐making, much of the information available is not fit for purpose. Climate model projections are able to capture many aspects of the climate system and so can be relied upon to guide mitigation plans and broad adaptation strategies, but the use of these models to guide local, practical adaptation actions is unwarranted. Climate models are unable to represent future conditions at the degree of spatial, temporal, and probabilistic precision with which projections are often provided, which gives a false impression of confidence to users of climate change information. In this article, we outline these issues, review their history, and provide a set of practical steps for both the development and climate scientist communities to consider. Solutions to mobilize the best available science include a focus on decision‐relevant timescales, an increased role for model evaluation and expert judgment and the integration of climate variability into climate change services. This article is categorized under: Climate and Development > Knowledge and Action in Development
Adaptation (eye · Business · Climate change · Climate model · Climate resilience · Environmental planning · Environmental resource management · Expert elicitation · Geography · Political economy of climate change · Political science · Probabilistic logic · Psychological resilience · Resilience (materials science · Risk analysis (engineering · Set (abstract data type · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Climate variability and models · Computer Science · Environmental Science · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Psychology
Climate change and coastal communities
Business risk and the emergence of climate analytics
Climate services promise better decisions but mainly focus on better data
Usability of climate information
Climate belief, accuracy of climatic expectations, and pro-environmental action
Climate change and the hydropower sector
Climate variability affects water-energy-food infrastructure performance in East Africa
The future-climate, current-policy framework
Adverse effects of extreme temperature on human development
Exploring the affective dimension of climate adaptation discourse
Hydrometeorological disasters in urban areas of Costa Rica, Central America
Southern African Climate Change
Navigating towards strengthened climate service processes
The Perverse Incentives of Climate Integration
Heat Wave
Tropical cyclones and climate change
Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle
Addressing ‘deep’ uncertainty over long-term climate in major infrastructure projects
Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation
The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections
Managing the Risk of Uncertain Threshold Responses
Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities?
Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century
A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios
Usable Science? The U.K. Climate Projections 2009 and Decision Support for Adaptation Planning
When not every response to climate change is a good one
Climate projections for ecologists
Climate services for society
Climate information websites
Drawing the line between adaptation and development
Case study and analogue methodologies in climate change vulnerability research
Adapting climate research for development in Africa
Improving the contribution of climate model information to decision making
Science, decision‐making and development
On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning
Climate change and future populations at risk of malaria
Adaptation to climate change in Africa
Cultural barriers to climate change adaptation
Institutional design propositions for the governance of adaptation to climate change in the water sector
Creating usable science
Are we adapting to climate change
Maladaptation
Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change
An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections
| Unique citing works | 14 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2,33 |
| Citation span | 2020 - 2026 (7) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 13 |