Towards the incorporation of tipping elements in global climate risk management
Probability and potential impacts of passing a threshold
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12950253 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Yoshihiko Iseri (Tokyo Institute of Technology, corresponding author), Sayaka Yoshikawa (0000-0002-0384-9937, Tokyo Institute of Technology), Masashi Kiguchi (0000-0002-8952-6855, The University of Tokyo), Ryunosuke Tawatari (0000-0002-1037-1580, Tokyo Institute of Technology), Shinjiro Kanae (0000-0002-3176-4957, Tokyo Institute of Technology), Taikan Oki (0000-0003-4067-4678, The University of Tokyo) |
| Year | 2018 |
| Volume | 13 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 315-328 |
| Publication date | 2018-02-02 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Sustainability Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1862-4057 • E-ISSN: 1862-4065 |
| Publisher | Springer Science+Business Media (PUBLISHER • DE) |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11625-018-0536-7 |
| PMID | 30147783 |
| OpenAlex | W2786045003 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 38 |
Evidence suggests that several elements (i.e., subsystems) of the Earth's climate system could tip into a qualitatively different state due to on-going and future anthropogenically induced climate change. Risks associated with tipping could form a component of critical climate risks, and their consideration should be indispensable in decision-making. However, there is lack of scientific knowledge about the risks associated with tipping elements, inhibiting their incorporation into comprehensive risk assessments of climate change (i.e., assessments of impact, adaptation, and mitigation with uncertainty). Using two major tipping elements (Arctic summer sea-ice loss and Greenland ice-sheet melting) as examples, this study attempted to address this lack of knowledge by conducting several calculations under various policy choices based on target temperature, including (i) the probability of passing a threshold temperature in this century and (ii) the potential impact of passing a threshold temperature on a millennial timescale beyond this century. The first theme of this study [Item (i) above] suggested that probability of exceeding the threshold within this century is 24.8% for the Greenland ice sheet and 2.7% for Arctic summer sea ice under a 1.5 °C temperature goal. However, it should be noted that the estimated probabilities of exceeding the threshold are largely dependent on the specification of the probability density function and key assumptions. With regard to the second theme of this study [Item (ii) above], estimation of the potential global coastal exposure using the estimated sea level exhibited a significant gap between scenarios not exceeding the threshold (1.5 °C target) and those exceeding the threshold
Arctic · Climate change · Climatology · Environmental resource management · Geography · Glacier · Global warming · Greenland ice sheet · Ice sheet · Physical geography · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Climate variability and models · Ecosystem dynamics and resilience · Environmental Science · Geology · Oceanography
Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis
Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather
Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise
A new scenario framework for climate change research
Risk implications of long-term global climate goals
Aggregate economic measures of climate change damages
Arctic Climate Tipping Points
| Unique citing works | 3 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,38 |
| Citation span | 2018 - 2022 (5) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 3 |