Fasthold USA, afskræk Rusland
Tendenser i dansk sikkerhedspolitik efter den russiske invasion af Ukraine
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12964355 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Mikkel Runge Olesen (0000-0003-1996-4494, Danish Institute for International Studies, corresponding author), Jakob Linnet Schmidt (0000-0001-7783-8176, Danish Institute for International Studies) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 82 |
| Issue | 3/4 |
| Publication date | 2024-12-20 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Internasjonal politikk (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1891-1757 • E-ISSN: 0020-577X |
| Publisher | Cappelen Damm Akademisk (PUBLISHER • NO) |
| DOI | 10.23865/intpol.v82.6750 |
| OpenAlex | W4405650611 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 9 |
Ruslands invasion af Ukraine var en skelsættende begivenhed for dansk sikkerhedspolitik. Men hvad har det medført? På overfladen har det resulteret i en række nybrud. En aftale om forsvarssamarbejde er blevet indgået med USA, forsvarsbudgettet er kommet i samklang med NATO’s målsætninger, Danmark yder massiv militær støtte til Ukraine, og forsvarsforbeholdet i EU er blevet afskaffet. Forsvarspolitisk forstærkede invasionen en igangværende omstilling af Forsvaret fra udsendelsesparate enheder til afskrækkelse i nærområdet. Det var dog en udvikling, der længe havde været undervejs, og som ikke mindst var drevet af et betydeligt pres for øgede forsvarsudgifter fra USA og NATO og dalende efterspørgsel efter bidrag til internationale stabiliseringsindsatser. Invasionen cementerede, at tiden, hvor et højt ”output” kunne kompensere for et lavt ”input”, reelt var ovre, om end bevægelsen havde været tydelig længe. Nyt var imidlertid, at Tyskland i 2022 annoncerede massive forøgelser af forsvarsbudgetterne, hvilket blev katalysator for tilsvarende oprustning i Danmark. Hovedsøjlen i dansk sikkerhedspolitik var fortsat forholdet til USA og NATO, men minimumsbarren for et godt forhold var nu hævet. Nyt var var det også, at Danmark positionerede sig som en af de absolut største bidragydere til Ukraine. Endelig var ophævelsen af forsvarsforbeholdet i EU et nybrud, hvilket var muliggjort af et holdningsskift i befolkningens syn på europæisk samarbejde som følge af invasionen. Danmark vil sandsynligvis bestræbe sig på at forsvare og fastholde denne linje, også når Donald Trump i 2025 igen bliver præsident i USA, samtidig med at landet vil gøre alt, der står i dets magt, for at bevare det transatlantiske bånd intakt. Abstract in English:Keep the Americans in and the Russians Out: Security Policy Trends in Denmark after Russia’s Invasion of UkraineTo all appearances, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a defining moment in Danish security policy. We have seen the establishment of a new defence cooperation agreement with the US, defence budgets are surpassing NATO guidelines, an ambitious and extensive military support plan for Ukraine has been pursued, and Denmark has removed, by referendum, its three-decades-old opt-out from European defence cooperation. In terms of defence policy, the invasion also accelerated a shift in focus away from extensive international engagement in distant parts of the world to putting a much greater emphasis on Denmark’s own immediate neighbourhood. In strategic terms, however, the change has been more limited, and the development must also be regarded as a continuation of a broader shift starting long before the 2022 invasion. Where it had earlier been possible for smaller allies like Denmark to compensate for low defence expenditures through the willingness to deploy its armed forces abroad, the appetite for such missions had been on the decline in the US and NATO for over a decade, leaving Denmark increasingly vulnerable to criticism on defence spending. This became especially pronounced when Germany decided to substantially increase defence spending in 2022. As such, the article argues, the main thread in Danish security policy, before and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, has been the continuous desire to keep the US in Europe in order to deter Russia. This policy will remain the cornerstone of Danish security policy when Donald Trump once again moves into the White House in 2025, and the Danish government can be expected to do everything within its power to keep the transatlantic relationship intact
Political science · European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies · European Politics and Security · European Union Policy and Governance
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| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2025 (1) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |