The Slippery Pearl

Despite Washington successfully arresting Beijing’s plan to construct a military base in the UAE, trade between Abu Dhabi and Beijing has grown to such an extent that China is now the UAE’s top source of imports and enjoys a trade surplus larger than Washington’s. Meanwhile, the UAE has received sizable investment for the Belt and Road Initiative and cooperates on promoting the renminbi. Meanwhile, bifurcation theory holds that, contrary to previous hegemonic transitions, US hegemony will split into military hegemony retained by Washington and economic hegemony to be seized by Beijing. Drawing on world-systems analysis, this paper seeks to determine whether the above gains by China are translating into economic hegemony, examining its three components of production, trade, and financial dominance in the UAE. The article argues that, while Beijing has bested Washington in production and trade dominance, several factors—such as the petrodollar—obstruct China’s attainment of financial dominance, thereby preventing bifurcation.Key Words: Belt and road initiativeBifurcationChinaHegemonyPetrodollarUnited Arab EmiratesWorld-systems analysis Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.Notes1 Warren Strobel and Gordon Lubold (2021) Secret Chinese Port Project in Persian Gulf Rattles U.S. Relations With U.A.E, Wall Street Journal, November 19. Available at: file:///C:/Users/81802/Zotero/storage/QQPM96AB/us-china-uae-military-11637274224.html, accessed November 19, 2021.2 Miria Pigato (Citation2009) Strengthening China’s and India’s Trade and Investment Ties to the Middle East and North Africa (Washington, DC: World Bank); James M. Dorsey (Citation2019) China and the Middle East: Venturing into the Maelstrom, Global Political Transitions (London: Palgrave Macmillan).3 Jonathan Fulton (Citation2018) Striking a Balance between Economics and Security: China’s Relations with the Gulf Monarchies, in: External Powers and the Gulf Monarchies, 1st ed. (London: Routledge).4 Ibid.5 Sahan Savas Karatasli and Sefika Kumral (2017) Territorial Contradictions of the Rise of China: Geopolitics, Nationalism and Hegemony in Comparative-Historical Perspective, Journal of World-Systems Research, 23(1), pp. 5–35.6 Jeremy Garlick and Radka Havlova (2020) China’s ‘Belt and Road’ Economic Diplomacy in the Persian Gulf: Strategic Hedging Amidst Saudi–Iranian Regional Rivalry, Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, 49(1), pp. 82–105.7 Fulton, Striking a Balance between Economics and Security: China’s Relations with the Gulf Monarchies.8 Lillian Craig Harris (Citation1993) China Considers the Middle East (London: New York: I.B.Tauris).9 John Calabrese (Citation2021) China’s “Pearl”: The UAE Amid Great-Power Rivalry, Middle East Institute, November 30. Available at: https://www.mei.edu/publications/chinas-pearl-uae-amid-great-power-rivalry, accessed May 27, 2022.10 Murray Tanner (Citation2017) Beijing’s New National Intelligence Law: From Defense to Offense, Lawfare. Available at: https://www.lawfareblog.com/beijings-new-national-intelligence-law-defense-offense, accessed January 18, 2022.11 Giovanni Arrighi (Citation2009) Adam Smith in Beijing: Lineages Of The 21St Century (London: Verso); John Ikenberry (Citation2016) Between the Eagle and the Dragon: America, China, and Middle State Strategies in East Asia, Political Science Quarterly (Wiley-Blackwell), 131(1), pp. 9–43. 1; Van Jackson (Citation2016) Asian Security after US Hegemony: Spheres of Influence and the Third Wave of Regional Order, The Asan Forum. Available online at https://theasanforum.org/asian-security-after-us-hegemony-spheres-of-influence-and-the-third-wave-of-regional-order/, accessed July 1, 2021.12 Terence K. Hopkins and Immanuel Maurice Wallerstein (1982), World-Systems Analysis: Theory and Methodology (Beverly Hills, CA: SAGE Publications, Inc.).13 Fulton, Striking a Balance between Economics and Security: China’s Relations with the Gulf Monarchies.14 Xinhua (Citation2018) Fruitful China-UAE Financial Cooperation Opens Up Possibilities for Gulf Region. Available at: http://english.scio.gov.cn/in-depth/2018-07/20/content_57805700.htm, accessed June 4, 2022.15 Peter Gowan (Citation2004) Contemporary Intra-Core Relations and World Systems Theory, Journal of World-Systems Research, 10(2), pp. 471–500.16 Apple Li (Citation2019) Trade War Hits BRI Financings, Reuters, July 8. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/trade-war-hits-bri-financings-idUSL8N24939A, accessed November 13, 2021.17 Joseph Nye (Citation2015) The Limits of Chinese Soft Power, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. 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Beijing · China · Dominance (genetics · Economics · Economy · Hegemony · International trade · Political science · Politics · Renminbi · China's Socioeconomic Reforms and Governance · International Development and Aid · Law · World Systems and Global Transformations

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