Taking uncertainty seriously

Classical realism and national security

Bibliographic Data

ID13020629
AuthorsPatrick Porter (University of Exeter, corresponding author)
Year2016
Volume1
Issue2
Pages239-260
Publication date2016-04-04
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEuropean Journal of International Security (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2057-5637 • E-ISSN: 2057-5645
PublisherCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1017/eis.2016.4
OpenAlexW2397827042
LanguageEN
Citations received13
References cited73

If we can’t reliably predict the future, how can we be wise when preparing for it? Examining the UK’s ‘Strategic Defence and Security Review’ of 2010, I demonstrate that though planners often rightly invoke uncertainty, they also imply a highly certain ideology about Western power and foresight. Modern ‘national security states’ describe the world as dangerously uncertain, yet fall prey to a misplaced confidence in their ability to anticipate and prevent threats. I argue that classical realism, especially that of Clausewitz and Morgenthau, is a valuable resource for handling uncertainty more reflexively. Classical realism counsels that governments should go beyond attempts to improve foresight. They should try to check against the fallibility of their assumptions, marshal their power more conservatively, insure against the likelihood of predictive failure by developing the intellectual capability to react to the unknown, and avoid misplaced confidence in their ability to bring order into chaos

Economics · Epistemology · Futures studies · Ideology · Law and economics · National security · Order (exchange · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Power (physics · Realism · Resource (disambiguation · Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science · Global Peace and Security Dynamics · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law · Peacebuilding and International Security · Philosophy

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