Hybrid Modeling Techniques for Municipal Solid Waste Forecasting

Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is critical for effective waste management, given the rising volumes of waste posing environmental and public health challenges. This study investigates the efficacy of hybrid forecasting models in predicting MSW generation trends across Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. The empirical analysis utilizes five distinct approaches – ARIMA, Theta model, neural networks, exponential smoothing state space (ETS), and TBATS models. MSW data spanning 1995–2021 for 29 OECD nations are analyzed using the hybrid models and benchmarked against individual ARIMA models. The results demonstrate superior predictive accuracy for the hybrid models across multiple error metrics, capturing complex data patterns and relationships missed by individual models. The forecasts project continued MSW generation growth in most countries but reveal nuanced country-level differences as well. The implications for waste management policies include implementing waste reduction and recycling programs, investing in infrastructure and technology, enhancing public education, implementing pricing incentives, rigorous monitoring and evaluation of practices, and multi-stakeholder collaboration. However, uncertainties related to model selection and data limitations warrant acknowledgment. Overall, this study affirms the value of hybrid forecasting models in providing robust insights to inform evidence-based waste management strategies and transition toward sustainability in the OECD region

Economics · Environmental economics · Municipal solid waste · Waste management · Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting · Energy Load and Power Forecasting · Engineering · Environmental Science · Forecasting Techniques and Applications

• The Combination of Forecasts

  Open Access•John M Bates, Clive W J Granger•Journal of the Operational…•1969

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