How did Brexit affect UK trade

Bibliographic Data

ID13041350
AuthorsJun Du (0000-0002-7164-4159, Aston University, corresponding author), Emine Beyza Satoğlu (0000-0001-6299-8863, Izmir Kâtip Çelebi University), Oleksandr Shepotylo (0000-0003-4990-6025, Aston University)
Year2023
Volume18
Issue2
Pages266-283
Publication date2023-03-15
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueContemporary Social Science (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2158-2041 • E-ISSN: 2158-205X
PublisherTaylor & Francis (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/21582041.2023.2192043
OpenAlexW4360609983
LanguageEN
Citations received13
References cited6

This paper assesses the effect of Brexit implemented through the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement on UK trade. Using COMTRADE data for the period of 2019 up to 2022Q1, and the method of synthetic difference-in-differences (SDID), we build a counterfactual UK that did not experience the change in its trade relationships with the EU. We show that the negative, large, and statistically significant impact of the TCA on UK exports has persisted over the examined period. This highlights the continuing export challenges that UK firms have faced since the TCA was put in force and underscores the need to systemically think about the UK’s post-Brexit trade policy. Our further analysis suggests that the UK has experienced a significant contraction in its trading capacity in terms of the varieties of goods being exported to the EU due to the TCA, which signify some serious long-term concerns about the UK’s future exporting and productivity

Brexit · Business · Counterfactual thinking · Economic growth · Economics · European union · International economics · International trade · Productivity · Global trade and economics · Market Dynamics and Volatility · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact