Projections of potential flows to the enlarging EU from Ukraine, Croatia and other Eastern neighbors
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 13057736 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Michael Fertig (0009-0005-9970-4570), Martin Kahanec (0000-0003-4397-3083) |
| Year | 2015 |
| Volume | 4 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Publication date | 2015-03-25 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | IZA Journal of Migration (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2193-9039 • E-ISSN: 2193-9039 |
| Publisher | Springer Science+Business Media (PUBLISHER • DE) |
| DOI | 10.1186/s40176-015-0029-8 |
| OpenAlex | W2107110338 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 29 |
This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its Eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU’s 2004 enlargement. We consider two baseline policy scenarios, with and without accession of sending countries to the EU. Our results show that migration flows are driven by migration costs and economic conditions, but the largest effects accrue to policy variables. In terms of the predicted flows: (i) we can expect modest migration flows in the case of no liberalization of labor markets and only moderately increased migration flows under liberalization; (ii) after an initial increase following liberalization, migration flows will subside to a long run steady state; (iii) Ukraine will send the most migrants; and (iv) the largest inflows in absolute terms are predicted for Germany, Italy and Austria, whereas Ireland, Denmark, Finland and again Austria are the main receiving countries relative to their population
Accession · Demographic economics · Economics · European union · Geography · International economics · Liberalization · Market economy · Population · Resizing · Demography · Global Health Care Issues · Migration and Labor Dynamics · Regional Socio-Economic Development Trends
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| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,13 |
| Citation span | 2018 - 2018 (1) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |