Invisible Coattails

Presidential Approval and Gubernatorial Elections, 1994–2014

Bibliographic Data

ID13057785
AuthorsElliott Fullmer (0000-0002-5162-1080, Ashland (United States), corresponding author), Rebecca Sangeetha Daniel (Randolph–Macon College, corresponding author)
Year2018
Volume16
Issue2
Pages269-287
Publication date2018-07-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueThe Forum (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2194-6183 • E-ISSN: 1540-8884
PublisherDe Gruyter (PUBLISHER • DE)
DOI10.1515/for-2018-0013
OpenAlexW2889076310
LanguageEN
Citations received7
References cited35

Hoping to insulate their contests from national politics, thirty-six states hold their gubernatorial elections in national midterm election years. Many scholars have assessed whether presidential evaluations nevertheless have an effect on these races, though findings have varied. We offer a new approach to examining this question, relying on underutilized state-level presidential approval data preceding 143 gubernatorial races across six national midterm election cycles. Accounting for the effects of state ideology, gubernatorial approval, campaign spending, state economic performance, and incumbency, we report that presidential approval has a positive and significant effect on the performance of the presidential party in gubernatorial races. The substantive effects are modest, though still potentially meaningful. In the primary specification, an additional six points of presidential approval is associated with about one additional point of gubernatorial vote share

Ideology · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Presidential election · Presidential system · Sociology · State (computer science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Law · Politics and Society in Latin America · Public Administration

Tools

Open DOISci-HubOpen Access