Economic Development of the Baltic and Nordic Countries

Characteristics of Еconomic Models

Bibliographic Data

ID13079935
AuthorsИ А Максимцев (0000-0002-9046-9114, corresponding author), Н М Межевич (0000-0003-3513-2962), Igor A Maksimtsev, Nikolai M Mezhevich, Anastasiya V Koroleva (Saint Petersburg State University of Economics)
Year2017
Volume9
Issue1
Pages41-54
Publication date2017-03-29
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueBaltic Region (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2310-0524 • E-ISSN: 2079-8555
PublisherImmanuel Kant Baltic Federal University (PUBLISHER • RU)
DOI10.5922/2079-8555-2017-1-5
OpenAlexW4239216302
LanguageEN
Citations received4
References cited1

Population ageing is a major problem of European development in the 21st cen­tury. Rapid population ageing in most developed countries will continue to drive the dependency ratio up. This research aims to forecast dependency ratio in the Baltic region until the end of the century. A more detailed population analysis and forecast is provided for the case of the Baltic States — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The authors use Bayesian probabilistic predictions based on data from the Pop­ulation Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Principle research methods include multi-factor simulation modelling; some find­ings are presented on schematic maps. The study shows that by the end of the century the highest dependency ratio in the Baltic region will be observed in Poland, while Finland, Estonia, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden will also face significant challenges. The authors put forward demographic policy recommendations for those Baltic region states that will reach the highest dependency ratio by the second half of the 21st century

Development economics · Economic geography · Economics · Economic Issues in Ukraine · Regional Development and Policy · Russia and Soviet political economy

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