Hybrid Simulation–expertise approach to balancing cost and resilience in global herbal supplement supply chains
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 13135170 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Zhimo Zhu (Changzhou No.2 People's Hospital), Yuping Zhang (0000-0003-1055-2071, Changzhou No.2 People's Hospital), Haixin Li (0000-0002-9200-7642, Changzhou No.2 People's Hospital), Zhilei Mao (0000-0003-1336-1350, Changzhou No.2 People's Hospital, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 11 |
| Pages | 101803-101803 |
| Publication date | 2026-03-23 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Sustainable Futures (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2666-1888 |
| Publisher | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101803 |
| OpenAlex | W7140085699 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 45 |
Proposes a novel hybrid simulation-expertise framework for supply chain decision-making under uncertainty. • Develops a robust Monte Carlo model for global supplier allocation and cost optimization in the herbal supplement industry. • Reveals and quantifies the critical trade-off between cost efficiency and supply chain resilience. • Provides validated, actionable insights for managers through structured expert consensus. • Offers a generalizable methodological framework applicable beyond herbal supplements. To address gaps in supply chain management for herbal supplements, this study proposes a hybrid frameworkthat integrates Monte Carlo simulation for quantitative risk assessment and cost optimization withtheDelphi method for qualitative refinement. Using a hypothetical complementary and alternative medicine firm sourcing ginseng, the simulation (10,000 iterations) optimizesthe cost at USD 35,171.83 under 100% Chinese supplier allocation, with shortages at 14.1% of demand.Parameters are refined throughDelphi validation by 12 experts (85% consensus), emphasizing diversification and sustainability, leading to an integrated allocation (87.5% Chinese) at USD 36,734.12—a 4.5% premium for enhanced resilience (shortages reduced to 13.7%). Sensitivity analyses highlight trade-offs, such as 8.5% cost increases from reliability drops. This validated approach advances supply chain management theory, offers generalizable insights for mitigating uncertainty in a $45.65 billion market,and bridges quantitative efficiencies with real-world applicability
Key (lock · Production (economics · Resilience (materials science · Supply chain · Supply chain risk management · Complementary and Alternative Medicine Studies · Simulation Techniques and Applications · Supply Chain Resilience and Risk Management
| Highly cited | No |
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