Le modèle gravitaire et le facteur d'échelle. Application aux migrations intérieures de la Belgique 1989-1991

The gravity model in relation with the scale, its application to the internal migration in Belgium 1989-1991 One of the most difficulties in the transposition of Newton's law to migration results from the division of the migratory space which is arbitrary and ordered hierarchically. The level is generally chosen according to the scale of analysis. If we add the observed fluxes in each commune of one arrondissement to each commune of another one, we find of course the total fluxes from the first to the second arrondissement. The gravity model does not reproduct this basic property. This problem is of considerable practical importance. By compararing the estimations of the fluxes between the Belgian arrondissements, computed respectively to the level of the arrondissements and of the communes, we remark that differences can double or vary more. The diagnoses of attractivity or repulsivity are different for 15% of the cases according to the model we used. On the average distances between the gravity centres of the arrondissements are 12% wrong compared with the average, distances travelled by the migrants estimated by the mean of the gravity model at the communal level; they are generally overestimated

Geodesy · Geography · Gravity model of trade · Humanities · demographic modeling and climate adaptation · Financial Crisis of the 21st Century · Mathematics · Philosophy

• Les migrations et la frontière linguistique en Belgique

  Open Access•Jean-Pierre Grimmeau•Espace populations sociétés•1992

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