Fiscal Histories
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 14855672 |
|---|---|
| Authors | John H Cochrane (0000-0002-1541-958X, John H. Cochrane is the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Stanford, California. He is also a Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts. His email address is and his webpage is ., corresponding author) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 36 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 125-146 |
| Publication date | 2022-11-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Journal of Economic Perspectives (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0895-3309 • E-ISSN: 1944-7965 |
| Publisher | American Economic Association (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1257/jep.36.4.125 |
| OpenAlex | W4308472318 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 4 |
The fiscal theory states that inflation adjusts so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of real primary surpluses. Monetary policy remains important. The central bank can set an interest rate target, which determines the path of expected inflation, while news about the present value of surpluses drives unexpected inflation. I use fiscal theory to interpret historical episodes, including the rise and fall of inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, the long quiet zero bound of the 2010s, and the reemergence of inflation in 2021, as well as to analyze the gold standard, currency pegs, the ends of hyperinflations, currency crashes, and the success of inflation targets. Going forward, fiscal theory warns that inflation will have to be tamed by coordinated monetary and fiscal policy
Currency · Debt · Economics · Fiscal policy · Government Debt · Inflation targeting · Interest rate · Keynesian economics · Macroeconomics · Monetary economics · Monetary policy · Real interest rate · Economic Theory and Policy · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy
| Citations per year | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2025 - 2025 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |