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An accuracy assessment of satellite-based cotton yield estimation using panel data regression

A case study of Uzbekistan

Bibliographic Data

ID15112568
AuthorsShovkat Khodjaev (0000-0002-8643-9502, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies, corresponding author), Ihtiyor Bobojonov (0000-0003-2166-6234, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies), Lena Kuhn (0000-0002-1453-0040, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies), Thomas Glauben (0000-0003-0640-9387, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies)
Year2024
Volume28
Issue3
Pages6799-6830
Publication date2024-07-27
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironment Development and Sustainability (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1387-585X • E-ISSN: 1573-2975
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1007/s10668-024-05220-1
OpenAlexW4401046780
LanguageEN
References cited128

Satellite-based yield estimation is crucial for spotting potential deficits in crop yields at an early stage, supports farm-level decision-making and early-warning systems, and is a prerequisite for index insurance markets. Precise satellite-based yield estimations are already established for important food crops like maize and wheat. However, for many cash crops like cotton, the accuracy of satellite-based yield estimation has not been scientifically tested, mainly due to their low biomass-yield correlation. This paper contributes to exploring the suitability of multiple vegetation indices based on Sentinel-2 imagery to estimate farm-level yields for one of these cash crops, cotton. We estimated various vegetation indices conjugated with the cotton crop phenology for the selected study area and compared them with farm-level panel data (n = 232) for the years 2016–2018 obtained from a statistical agency in Uzbekistan. Overall, we tested the suitability of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, the Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index 2, the Red-Edge Chlorophyll Index and the Normalized Difference Red-Edge Index (NDRE). Among these indices, the NDRE index shows the highest fit with the actual cotton yield data (R 2 up to 0.96, adj R 2 = 0.95 and RMSE = 0.21). These results indicate that the NDRE index is a powerful indicator for determining cotton yields. Based on this approach, farmers can monitor crop growth, which in turn avoids crop loss and thereby increases productivity. This research highlights that a satellite-based estimate of crop production can provide a unique perspective which should improve the possibility of identifying management priorities to improve agriculture productivity and mitigate climate impacts

Agricultural engineering · Agriculture · Agronomy · Cash crop · Crop yield · Economics · Estimation · Geography · Leaf area index · Normalized Difference Vegetation Index · Statistics · Computer Science · Engineering · Environmental Science · Land Use and Ecosystem Services · Leaf Properties and Growth Measurement · Mathematics · Remote Sensing in Agriculture

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