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Pandemic transmission forecasting

Insights from Covid-19 modeling involving environmental factors

Bibliographic Data

ID15295881
AuthorsMingzhi Hu (0000-0002-5377-5278, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences), Tian Song (0000-0003-2019-4458, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences), Song Tian (0000-0002-7006-6588, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences), Zhaoyuan Gong (0009-0002-6880-4673, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences), Lin Chen (0000-0001-5135-3998, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences), Qianzi Che (0000-0002-8688-6628, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences), Jing Guo (0000-0001-8085-0117, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences), Ning Liang (0000-0003-0260-2331, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences), Cuicui Cheng (China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences), Yanping Wang (0000-0002-2463-0555, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, corresponding author), Nannan Shi (0000-0003-0278-1608, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, corresponding author), Bin Liu (0000-0002-7467-2331, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, corresponding author)
Year2025
Volume35
Issue1
Publication date2025-09-23
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueCritical Public Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0958-1596 • E-ISSN: 1469-3682
PublisherTaylor & Francis (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/09581596.2025.2562416
OpenAlexW4414482816
LanguageEN
References cited31

Numerous mathematical models use various predictors and modeling approaches to forecast pandemics; however, given the diversity of these models, it remains unclear which type offers the most advantage. This study aimed to systematically evaluate the accuracy of models that incorporate natural, social, and pollution-related environmental factors to predict COVID-19 transmission, and to explore the potential role of predictive models in managing future large-scale epidemics. The results revealed that, although only six studies used mathematical models with both natural and social environmental predictors, these models outperformed those with only natural or pollution predictors. Currently, most models focus primarily on temperature and humidity, with limited emphasis on other environmental factors, such as wind speed and pollution. In future pandemic responses, utilizing more multidimensional and diverse predictors can improve the accuracy and clinical applicability of the model and reduce the detrimental effects of disease transmission and spread

Computational model · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Environmental pollution · Mathematical model · Pandemic · Predictive modelling · Transmission (telecommunications · COVID-19 diagnosis using AI · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts

  • Reduction in mobility and Covid-19 transmission

    Open Access•Pierre Nouvellet, Sangeeta Bhatia et al.•Nature Communications•2021

  • Pollution and health

    Open Access•Richard Fuller, Philip J Landrigan et al.•The Lancet Planetary Health•2022

  • Factors determining the diffusion of Covid-19 and suggested strategy to prevent future accelerated viral infectivity similar to Covid

    Open Access•Mario Coccia•The Science of The Total…•2020

  • Temporal and Spatiotemporal Arboviruses Forecasting by Machine Learning

    Open Access•Clarisse Lins de Lima, Ana Clara Gomes da Silva et al.•Frontiers in Public Health•2022

  • The effects of atmospheric stability with low wind speed and of air pollution on the accelerated transmission dynamics of Covid-19

    Mario Coccia•International Journal of…•2021

Highly citedNo
Open DOIOpen Access
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