Sars-CoV-2 incidence monitoring and statistical estimation of the basic and time-varying reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic in 45 sub-Saharan African countries

Datos Bibliográficos

ID15364607
AutoresMichael Safo Oduro (0000-0003-4777-1964, Pfizer (United States), autor de correspondencia), Seth Arhin-Donkor (Humana (United States)), Louis Asiedu (0000-0002-2859-1215, University of Ghana), Damazo T Kadengye (0000-0001-7586-4928, African Population and Health Research Center), Samuel Iddi (0000-0002-2366-2774, University of Ghana)
Año2024
Volumen24
Número1
Páginas612-612
Fecha de publicación2024-02-26
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaBMC Public Health (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 1471-2458 • E-ISSN: 1471-2458
EditorialBioMed Central (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1186/s12889-024-18184-8
PMID38409118
OpenAlexW4392166218
IdiomaEN
Referencias citadas25

The world battled to defeat a novel coronavirus 2019 (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19), a respiratory illness that is transmitted from person to person through contacts with droplets from infected persons. Despite efforts to disseminate preventable messages and adoption of mitigation strategies by governments and the World Health Organization (WHO), transmission spread globally. An accurate assessment of the transmissibility of the coronavirus remained a public health priority for many countries across the world to fight this pandemic, especially at the early onset. In this paper, we estimated the transmission potential of COVID-19 across 45 countries in sub-Saharan Africa using three approaches, namely, [Formula: see text] based on (i) an exponential growth model (ii) maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and (iii) a time-varying basic reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic. Using data from March 14, 2020, to May 10, 2020, sub-Saharan African countries were still grappling with COVID-19 at that point in the pandemic. The region's basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) was 1.89 (95% CI: 1.767 to 2.026) using the growth model and 1.513 (95% CI: 1.491 to 1.535) with the maximum likelihood method, indicating that, on average, infected individuals transmitted the virus to less than two secondary persons. Several countries, including Sudan ([Formula: see text]: 2.03), Ghana ([Formula: see text]: 1.87), and Somalia ([Formula: see text]: 1.85), exhibited high transmission rates. These findings highlighted the need for continued vigilance and the implementation of effective control measures to combat the pandemic in the region. It is anticipated that the findings in this study would not only function as a historical record of reproduction numbers during the COVID-19 pandemic in African countries, but can serve as a blueprint for addressing future pandemics of a similar nature

Basic reproduction number · Biostatistics · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Disease · Economics · Environmental health · Estimation · Infectious disease (medical specialty · Pandemic · Population · Public health · Sociology · Telecommunications · Transmission (telecommunications · Computer Science · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · COVID-19 impact on air quality · COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts · Demography · Medicine