Beyond crystal balls

We propose a shift from a focus on the prediction of individual disease patterns to the identification and mitigation of broader fragilities in public health systems. Modeling capabilities should be used to perform "stress tests" on how interrelated fragilities respond when faced with a range of possible or plausible threats of different nature and intensity. This system should be able to reveal crosscutting solutions with the potential to address not only one threat, but multiple areas of vulnerability to future health risks. Actionable knowledge not based on a narrow subset of threats and conditions can better guide policy, build societal resilience and ensure effective prevention in an uncertain world

Computer security · Data science · Identification (biology · Management science · Psychological resilience · Public health · Resilience (materials science · Risk analysis (engineering · Risk assessment · Vulnerability (computing · Computer Science · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Engineering · Medicine · Public Health Policies and Education · Zoonotic diseases and public health

• The Parable of Google Flu

  Open Access•David Lazer, Ryan Kennedy et al.•Science•2014

  Añadir item

• Global trends in emerging infectious diseases

  Open Access•Katlin E Jones, Nikkita G Patel et al.•Nature•2008

  Añadir item

• Hygiene, Sanitation, and Water

  Open Access•John Bartram, Jamie Bartram et al.•PLoS Medicine•2010

  Añadir item

• Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia

  Open Access•Neil M Ferguson, Derek A T Cummings et al.•Nature•2005

  Añadir item

• An Approach for Assessing Human Health Vulnerability and Public Health Interventions to Adapt to Climate Change

  Open Access•Kristie L Ebi, Stephen Kovat et al.•Environmental Health Perspectives•2006

  Añadir item

• Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality

  Open Access•Li Liu, Hope L Johnson et al.•The Lancet•2012

  Añadir item

• Global health security

  Open Access•David L Heymann, Lincoln Chen et al.•The Lancet•2015

  Añadir item

• Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013

  Open Access•Theo Vos, Ryan M Barber et al.•The Lancet•2015

  Añadir item

• Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities?

  Dessai, Suraje Dessai et al.•Climate Policy•2004

  Añadir item

• Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology

  Open Access•Antoine Guisan, Niklaus E Zimmermann•Ecological Modelling•2000

  Añadir item

• Climate change and future populations at risk of malaria

  Open Access•Pim Martens, Stephen Kovat et al.•Global Environmental Change•1999

  Añadir item

• Climate Change

  Howard Frumkin, Jim He et al.•American Journal of Public Health•2008

  Añadir item

• The Earth as Transformed by Human Action. Global and Regional Changes in the Biosphere over the Past 300 Years

  Andrew Goudie, A S Goudie et al.•Transactions of the Institute of…•1993

  Añadir item

• Health in All Policies — All Talk and Little Action

  Open Access•Lorraine Greaves, Lorraine J Greaves et al.•Canadian Journal of Public Health•2011

  Añadir item

• Ecosystem approaches to human health

  Open Access•N Ole Nielsen•Cadernos de Saude Publica•2001

  Añadir item