Modeling the Potential Future Distribution of Anthrax Outbreaks under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kenya

Bibliographic Data

ID15460732
AuthorsFredrick Otieno (0000-0003-0823-412X, corresponding author), Fredrick Tom Otieno (0000-0002-3375-8905, South Eastern Kenya University, corresponding author), John Gachohi (0000-0001-9854-7490, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology), Peter Gikuma‐Njuru (South Eastern Kenya University), Peter Gikuma-Njuru (South Eastern Kenya University), Patrick Kariuki (0000-0002-5212-8773, South Eastern Kenya University), Harry Oyas (Ministry of Agriculture Livestock and Fisheries), Samuel Canfield (0000-0001-8272-1132, University of Florida), Samuel A Canfield (University of Florida), Bernard Bett (0000-0001-9376-2941, International Livestock Research Institute), Moses Kariuki Njenga (Paul Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University-Global Health Kenya, One Padmore Place, George Padmore Lane, P.O. Box 19676 Nairobi 00100, Kenya), Jason K Blackburn (0000-0003-0928-4831, University of Florida)
Year2021
Volume18
Issue8
Pages4176-4176
Publication date2021-04-15
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601
PublisherMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3390/ijerph18084176
PMID33920863
OpenAlexW3152949007
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited55

The climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future distribution of anthrax in Kenya with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for year 2055. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) of boosted regression trees (BRT) was applied in predicting the potential geographic distribution of anthrax for current and future climatic conditions. The models were fitted with presence-only anthrax occurrences (n = 178) from historical archives (2011-2017), sporadic outbreak surveys (2017-2018), and active surveillance (2019-2020). The selected environmental variables in order of importance included rainfall of wettest month, mean precipitation (February, October, December, July), annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, length of longest dry season, potential evapotranspiration and slope. We found a general anthrax risk areal expansion i.e., current, 36,131 km 2 , RCP 4.5, 40,012 km 2 , and RCP 8.5, 39,835 km 2 . The distribution exhibited a northward shift from current to future. This prediction of the potential anthrax distribution under changing climates can inform anticipatory measures to mitigate future anthrax risk

Biology · Climate change · Distribution (mathematics · Environmental health · Geography · Outbreak · Bacillus and Francisella bacterial research · Environmental Science · Mathematics · Medicine · Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research · Zoonotic diseases and public health · Ecology · Virology

Tools

Open DOIOpen Access