Implications of Projected Hydroclimatic Change for Tularemia Outbreaks in High-Risk Areas across Sweden

Bibliographic Data

ID15465796
AuthorsYan Ma (0000-0001-9735-5868, Stockholm University, corresponding author), Guillaume Vigouroux (0000-0001-9174-0765, Stockholm University), Zahra Kalantari (0000-0002-7978-0040, Stockholm University), Romain Goldenberg (0000-0002-3549-3453, Stockholm University), Georgia Destouni (0000-0001-9408-4425, Stockholm University)
Year2020
Volume17
Issue18
Pages6786-6786
Publication date2020-09-17
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601
PublisherMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3390/ijerph17186786
PMID32957641
OpenAlexW3086435821
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited28

Hydroclimatic change may affect the range of some infectious diseases, including tularemia. Previous studies have investigated associations between tularemia incidence and climate variables, with some also establishing quantitative statistical disease models based on historical data, but studies considering future climate projections are scarce. This study has used and combined hydro-climatic projection outputs from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and site-specific, parameterized statistical tularemia models, which all imply some type of power-law scaling with preceding-year tularemia cases, to assess possible future trends in disease outbreaks for six counties across Sweden, known to include tularemia high-risk areas. Three radiative forcing (emissions) scenarios are considered for climate change projection until year 2100, incuding low (2.6 Wm -2 ), medium (4.5 Wm -2 ), and high (8.5 Wm -2 ) forcing. The results show highly divergent changes in future disease outbreaks among Swedish counties, depending primarily on site-specific type of the best-fit disease power-law scaling characteristics of (mostly positive, in one case negative) sub- or super-linearity. Results also show that scenarios of steeper future climate warming do not necessarily lead to steeper increase of future disease outbreaks. Along a latitudinal gradient, the likely most realistic medium climate forcing scenario indicates future disease decreases (intermittent or overall) for the relatively southern Swedish counties Örebro and Gävleborg (Ockelbo), respectively, and disease increases of considerable or high degree for the intermediate (Dalarna, Gävleborg (Ljusdal)) and more northern (Jämtland, Norrbotten; along with the more southern Värmland exception) counties, respectively

Biology · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Coupled model intercomparison project · Forcing (mathematics · Geography · Outbreak · Radiative forcing · Tularemia · Bacillus and Francisella bacterial research · Environmental Science · Evolution and Genetic Dynamics · Yersinia bacterium, plague, ectoparasites research · Ecology · Geology · Virology

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