Analysis of Transmission and Control of Tuberculosis in Mainland China, 2005–2016, Based on the Age-Structure Mathematical Model

Datos Bibliográficos

ID15466975
AutoresYu Zhao (0000-0001-9446-644X, Ningxia Medical University), Mingtao Li (0000-0001-7934-6052, Shanxi University), Sanling Yuan (0000-0002-0502-3653, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, autor de correspondencia)
Año2017
Volumen14
Número10
Páginas1192-1192
Fecha de publicación2017-10-07
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601
EditorialMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3390/ijerph14101192
PMID28991169
OpenAlexW2763359948
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas6
Referencias citadas31

Tuberculosis (TB), an air-borne infectious disease, is a major public-health problem in China. The reported number of the active tuberculosis cases is about one million each year. The morbidity data for 2005-2012 reflect that the difference in morbidity based on age group is significant, thus the role of age-structure on the transmission of TB needs to be further developed. In this work, based on the reported data and the observed morbidity characteristics, we propose a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model with age groupings, involving three categories: children, the middle-aged, and senior to investigate the role of age on the transmission of tuberculosis in Mainland China from 2005 to 2016. Then, we evaluated the parameters by the Least Square method and simulated the model and it had good alignment with the reported infected TB data in Mainland China. Furthermore, we estimated the basic reproduction number R0 of 1.7858, with an obtained 95% confidence interval for R0 of (1.7752, 1.7963) by Latin hypercube sampling, and we completed a sensitivity analysis of R0 in terms of some parameters. Our study demonstrates that diverse age groups have different effects on TB. Two effective measures were found that would help reach the goals of theWorld Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy: an increase in the recovery rate and the reduction in the infectious rate of the senior age group

China · Environmental health · Geography · Mainland China · Pathology · Sociology · Telecommunications · Transmission (telecommunications · Tuberculosis · Tuberculosis control · Computer Science · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Demography · Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models · Medicine