Climate Change is Likely to Worsen the Public Health Threat of Diarrheal Disease in Botswana

Dados Bibliográficos

ID15473258
AutoresKathleen A Alexander (0000-0001-7338-5341, Virginia Tech, autor correspondente), Kathleen Alexander (Fisheries and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Tech, 100 Cheatham Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA), Marcos Carzolio (Virginia Tech), Douglas G Goodin (0000-0003-0062-924X, Kansas State University), Douglas Goodin (Kansas State University), Eric A Vance (0000-0001-5545-1878, Virginia Tech)
Ano2013
Volume10
Fascículo4
Páginas1202-1230
Data de publicação2013-03-26
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601
EditoraMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3390/ijerph10041202
PMID23531489
PMCIDPMC3709313
OpenAlexW2102591853
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas15
Referências citadas88

Diarrheal disease is an important health challenge, accounting for the majority of childhood deaths globally. Climate change is expected to increase the global burden of diarrheal disease but little is known regarding climate drivers, particularly in Africa. Using health data from Botswana spanning a 30-year period (1974-2003), we evaluated monthly reports of diarrheal disease among patients presenting to Botswana health facilities and compared this to climatic variables. Diarrheal case incidence presents with a bimodal cyclical pattern with peaks in March (ANOVA p < 0.001) and October (ANOVA p < 0.001) in the wet and dry season, respectively. There is a strong positive autocorrelation (p < 0.001) in the number of reported diarrhea cases at the one-month lag level. Climatic variables (rainfall, minimum temperature, and vapor pressure) predicted seasonal diarrheal with a one-month lag in variables (p < 0.001). Diarrheal case incidence was highest in the dry season after accounting for other variables, exhibiting on average a 20% increase over the yearly mean (p < 0.001). Our analysis suggests that forecasted climate change increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation may increase dry season diarrheal disease incidence with hot, dry conditions starting earlier and lasting longer. Diarrheal disease incidence in the wet season is likely to decline. Our results identify significant health-climate interactions, highlighting the need for an escalated public health focus on controlling diarrheal disease in Botswana. Study findings have application to other arid countries in Africa where diarrheal disease is a persistent public health problem

Biology · Climate change · Diarrhea · Diarrheal disease · Diarrheal diseases · Disease · Economics · Environmental health · Geography · Public health · Socioeconomics · Child Nutrition and Water Access · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Global Health Care Issues · Medicine · Ecology