The Role of Influenza in the Delay between Low Temperature and Ischemic Heart Disease

Evidence from Simulation and Mortality Data from Japan

Bibliographic Data

ID15488233
AuthorsChisato Imai (0000-0002-0080-1487, Queensland University of Technology, corresponding author), Adrian Barnett (0000-0001-6339-0374, Queensland University of Technology), Masahiro Hashizume (0000-0003-4720-1750, Nagasaki University), Yasushi Honda (0000-0003-2248-1629, University of Tsukuba)
Year2016
Volume13
Issue5
Pages454-454
Publication date2016-04-28
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601
PublisherMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3390/ijerph13050454
PMID27136571
OpenAlexW2345067779
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited42

Many studies have found that cardiovascular deaths mostly occur within a few days of exposure to heat, whereas cold-related deaths can occur up to 30 days after exposure. We investigated whether influenza infection could explain the delayed cold effects on ischemic heart diseases (IHD) as they can trigger IHD. We hypothesized two pathways between cold exposure and IHD: a direct pathway and an indirect pathway through influenza infection. We created a multi-state model of the pathways and simulated incidence data to examine the observed delayed patterns in cases. We conducted cross-correlation and time series analysis with Japanese daily pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality data to help validate our model. Simulations showed the IHD incidence through the direct pathway occurred mostly within 10 days, while IHD through influenza infection peaked at 4-6 days, followed by delayed incidences of up to 20-30 days. In the mortality data from Japan, P&I lagged IHD in cross-correlations. Time series analysis showed strong delayed cold effects in the older population. There was also a strong delay on intense days of influenza which was more noticeable in the older population. Influenza can therefore be a plausible explanation for the delayed association between cold exposure and cardiovascular mortality

Cardiology · Disease · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Medicine · Thermal Regulation in Medicine · Thermoregulation and physiological responses · Internal Medicine

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