Burden of autism spectrum disorder in Japan from 1992 to 2021 and its prediction until 2050

Results from the GBD study

Bibliographic Data

ID15524349
AuthorsJiajia Liu (0000-0002-1923-5964, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, corresponding author), Xiaoyan Xie (0000-0003-1757-8872, Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine), Yingna Li (0000-0002-5351-7375, Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, corresponding author), Yiqi Pu (Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine), Yan Li (0000-0001-6650-7726, Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, corresponding author), Lingling Yang (0000-0002-6211-8042, Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, corresponding author)
Year2025
Volume16
Pages1619085-1619085
Publication date2025-07-08
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueFrontiers in Psychiatry (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1664-0640 • E-ISSN: 1664-0640
PublisherFrontiers Media (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3389/fpsyt.2025.1619085
PMID40698055
OpenAlexW4412100222
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited10

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental condition characterized by persistent deficits in social communication and interaction, alongside restricted, repetitive patterns of behavior. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends and project the future burden of ASD in Japan. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data, we analyzed prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates (ASR) (1992-2021) through age-period-cohort modeling, joinpoint regression, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting. Age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) increased significantly (Average Annual Percentage Change [AAPC]=0.2744; 95%CI:0.2606-0.2882), with males disproportionately affected (male-to-female ratio 4:1). By 2050, crude prevalence is projected to decline 14.2%, while ASPR will rise 18.0%. Japan's ASD burden exceeds global averages, necessitating targeted interventions across the lifespan. These findings highlight the increasing burden of ASD in Japan and underscore the urgent need for enhanced healthcare planning and resource allocation

Autism · Autism spectrum disorder · Psychiatry · Autism Spectrum Disorder Research · Genetics and Neurodevelopmental Disorders · Medicine · Psychology · Virology and Viral Diseases

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