Risk-based versus storyline approaches for global warming impact assessment on basin-averaged extreme rainfall
A case study for Typhoon Hagibis in eastern Japan
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15544110 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Tomohiro Tanaka (0000-0002-8884-9089, Kyoto Katsura Hospital, corresponding author), Hiroaki Kawase (0000-0003-4865-791X, Japan Meteorological Agency), Yukiko Imada (0000-0002-1270-8335, Japan Meteorological Agency), Yuki Kawai (0000-0003-2643-6294, Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting (Japan)), Satoshi Watanabe (0000-0003-3917-0894, Kyoto University) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 18 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 054010-054010 |
| Publication date | 2023-04-12 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/accc24 |
| OpenAlex | W4365144987 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 27 |
Two methods exist to address the degree to which past extreme events and associated disasters will be intensified due to climate change: storyline approaches and risk-based approaches. However, the risk-based approach applied to weather similar to the target event (typhoons, a stationary weather front,...etc) becomes theoretically similar to the storyline approach. We examine this theory for the climate change impact of a real event, Typhoon Hagibis, which caused devastating flood damage to eastern Japan in 2019, while focusing on basin-averaged accumulated rainfall (BAAR) in major eastern river basins. A risk-based approach was conducted to determine the future change of BAAR by calculating the quantile change corresponding to Hagibis from the probability distribution of typhoon-induced events in a large ensemble climate simulation dataset database for Policy Decision-making for Future climate change (past, +2K and +4K future climates). A storyline approach for Typhoon Hagibis was realized using a pseudo global warming (PGW) experiment with a 5 km non-hydrostatic model. The projected BAAR in the two approaches were consistent for all target basins, supporting the robustness of the calculated changes in extreme catchment precipitation. This presents an important practical benefit: one can assess future climate change impact on a past symbolic event using either PGW experiments or large ensemble climate projections for the target weather
Climate change · Climate change scenario · Climate model · Climatology · Econometrics · Extreme weather · Flood myth · Geography · Global warming · Meteorology · Precipitation · Quantile · Structural basin · Typhoon · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Mathematics · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Geology
Storylines
Changes in precipitation frequency and intensity in the vicinity of Taiwan
Simultaneous flood risk analysis and its future change among all the 109 class-A river basins in Japan using a large ensemble climate simulation database d4PDF
Attribution of the record high Central England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2025 (1) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |