Climate change impact on energy demand in building-urban-atmosphere simulations through the 21st century
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15544121 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Mathew Lipson (0000-0001-5322-1796, UNSW Sydney, corresponding author), Marcus Thatcher (0000-0003-4139-5515, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere), Melissa Hart (0000-0002-3097-0556), Melissa A Hart (0000-0002-3512-8843, UNSW Sydney), A J Pitman (0000-0003-0604-3274, UNSW Sydney) |
| Year | 2019 |
| Volume | 14 |
| Issue | 12 |
| Pages | 125014-125014 |
| Publication date | 2019-11-22 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5aa5 |
| OpenAlex | W2990645575 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 57 |
Social, technological and climatic changes will transform the way energy is consumed over the 21st century, with important implications for energy networks and greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we develop a method to efficiently explore climate-energy interactions under various scenarios of climate, urban infrastructure and technological change. We couple the Urban Climate and Energy Model with the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model as a full-height single column driven with a series of global climate model simulations in an ensemble approach. The framework is evaluated against observations, then a series of century-scale simulations are undertaken to examine projected climate change impacts on electricity and gas demand in the temperate/ oceanic climate of Melbourne, Australia. With air-conditioning ownership remaining at early 21st century levels, and in the absence of other changes, climate change under radiative forcing RCP 8.5 increases peak electricity demand by 10%, and decreases peak gas demand by 22% between 2000 and 2100. However, if projected increases in air-conditioning ownership are considered, peak electricity demand increases by 84%, surpassing peak gas demand in the second half of the century. These findings highlight the complex nature of changes facing energy networks. Changes will be location and scenario dependent
Atmospheric sciences · Climate change · Climate commitment · Climate model · Climatology · Economics · Effects of global warming · Electricity · Electricity demand · Electricity generation · Energy demand · Geography · Global warming · Greenhouse gas · Meteorology · Natural resource economics · Power (physics · Radiative forcing · Temperate climate · Building Energy and Comfort Optimization · Climate variability and models · Engineering · Environmental Science · Wind and Air Flow Studies · Geology
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| Citations per year | 0.6 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2021 - 2024 (4) |
| Highly cited | No |