Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework
Incorporation of probability distributions and hydro-climatic variability
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15544150 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Ted Veldkamp (0000-0002-2295-8135, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, corresponding author), T I E Veldkamp, Yoshihide Wada (0000-0003-4770-2539, Columbia University), Jeroen C J H Aerts (0000-0002-2162-5814, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam), Philip J Ward (0000-0001-7702-7859, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Year | 2016 |
| Volume | 11 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 024006-024006 |
| Publication date | 2016-02-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024006 |
| OpenAlex | W2267438818 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 16 |
| References cited | 8 |
Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels
Biology · Climate change · Economics · Environmental resource management · Geography · Natural resource economics · Population · Population growth · Scarcity · Water resource management · Water resources · Water scarcity · Environmental Science · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Water resources management and optimization · Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies · Demography · Ecology
Net benefit of smaller human populations to environmental integrity and individual health and wellbeing
The D-A-R approach
Increasing dependence of lowland populations on mountain water resources
Translating the ‘water scarcity – water reuse’ situation into an information system for decision-making
Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Direct or Spillover Effect
Accounting for internal migration in spatial population projections—a gravity-based modeling approach using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Advancing disaster policies by integrating dynamic adaptive behaviour in risk assessments using an agent-based modelling approach
Annual water deficit in response to climate variabilities across the globe
More prolonged droughts by the end of the century in the Middle East
The impact of climate change policy on the risk of water stress in southern and eastern Asia
Rural drinking water issues in India’s drought-prone area
Climate change-related risks and adaptation potential in Central and South America during the 21st century
Quantifying the potential for reservoirs to secure future surface water yields in the world’s largest river basins
Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Human impact parameterizations in global hydrological models improve estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes
Successful adaptation to climate change across scales
Downscaling drivers of global environmental change
Changing mechanism of global water scarcity events
The roads ahead
The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources
Climate change and global water resources
| Unique citing works | 16 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,6 |
| Citation span | 2016 - 2024 (9) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 16 |