Uncertainty analysis of future summer monsoon duration and area over East Asia using a multi-GCM/multi-RCM ensemble

Bibliographic Data

ID15544280
AuthorsDonghyun Lee (0000-0003-0184-2712, Pohang University of Science and Technology), Seung‐Ki Min (0000-0002-6749-010X, Pohang University of Science and Technology, corresponding author), Joong‐Bae Ahn (0000-0001-6958-2801, Pusan National University), Dong‐Hyun Cha (0000-0001-5053-6741, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology), Seok-Woo Shin (0000-0002-5178-6846, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology), Eun‐Chul Chang (0000-0002-5784-447X, Kongju National University), Eun-Chul Chang, Myoung‐Seok Suh (0000-0002-3827-0044, Kongju National University), Young‐Hwa Byun (0000-0002-6074-4461, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences), Young-Hwa Byun, Jin‐Uk Kim (0000-0001-9892-9915, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences), Jin-Uk Kim
Year2023
Volume18
Issue6
Pages064026-064026
Publication date2023-05-03
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/acd208
OpenAlexW4367835957
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited53

This study examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of the summer monsoon rainy season over East Asia using six regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Coordinated Regional Domain Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia Phase II project. The framework combining multiple global climate models (GCMs) with multiple RCMs produces a larger spread in summer monsoon characteristics than driving GCMs only, enabling a better quantification of uncertainty factors. On average, the RCM simulations reproduce the observed summer monsoon duration and area better than the corresponding boundary GCMs, implying the added values of downscaling. Both the area and duration of the East Asian summer monsoon are projected to increase by the late 21st century, more strongly in high emission scenarios than in low emission scenarios, particularly in China. Different responses between scenarios, which indicate warming mitigation benefits, only become significant in the late 21st century due to large intersimulation uncertainties. Analysis of variance results show that uncertainty in future monsoon area and duration is larger between boundary GCMs than between RCMs over East Asia and its coastal subregions. A strong intersimulation relationship between RCMs and GCMs supports that boundary GCMs substantially diversify downscaled RCM projections through different climate sensitivities. Furthermore, the distinct subregional responses in future monsoon area and duration emphasize the importance of fine-resolution projections with appropriate uncertainty measures for better preparing region-specific adaptation plans

China · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Downscaling · Duration (music · East Asia · East Asian Monsoon · GCM transcription factors · General Circulation Model · Geography · Meteorology · Monsoon · Precipitation · Climate variability and models · Cryospheric studies and observations · Environmental Science · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Geology · Oceanography

Tools

Open DOIOpen Access