Empirical projection of global sea level in 2050 driven by Antarctic and Greenland ice mass variations
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15544369 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Donghyuck Lee (Seoul National University of Education), Donghyuck David Lee, Byeong‐Hoon Kim (0000-0001-8128-6618, Korea Polar Research Institute, corresponding author), Byeong-Hoon Kim, Ki‐Weon Seo (0000-0001-5523-4996, Seoul National University of Education), Ki-Weon Seo, Won Sang Lee (0000-0002-1074-7672, Korea Polar Research Institute), Choon‐Ki Lee (0000-0001-7787-2972, Korea Polar Research Institute), Choon-Ki Lee, Taehwan Jeon (0000-0002-2985-5120, Seoul National University of Education), Emilia Kyung Jin (0000-0002-5257-3340, Korea Polar Research Institute) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 19 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 014058-014058 |
| Publication date | 2023-12-08 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ad13b8 |
| OpenAlex | W4389472902 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 69 |
Global mean sea level rise, driven by ice mass loss in Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets (AIS and GrIS), is a significant consequence of global warming. Although various ice sheet models have attempted to predict the ice mass balance and subsequent sea level changes, non-trivial disagreements between models exist. In this study, we employ an empirical approach to estimate the future (2050) ice mass changes for both ice sheets, assuming their historical patterns of ice dynamics would persist in the coming decades. To achieve this, we estimate decadal-scale ice discharge variations by subtracting the surface mass balance (SMB) from the observed ice mass changes and extrapolate linear trend and acceleration components of ice discharges up to 2050. We also consider future SMB data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 models to estimate net ice mass balance. Our estimates suggest that from 2021 to 2050, the global sea level rise due to AIS and GrIS ranges between 6–19 mm and 15–31 mm, respectively. Additionally, we investigate regional sea level variability resulting from geoid changes induced by ice mass changes in both regions, highlighting that heterogeneous sea level changes may cause more pronounced sea level rises in lower latitude regions, where major cities are located
Antarctic sea ice · Arctic ice pack · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Coupled model intercomparison project · Future sea level · Glacier · Glacier mass balance · Greenland ice sheet · Ice sheet · Ice-albedo feedback · Ice-sheet model · Sea ice · Sea level · Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics · Cryospheric studies and observations · Environmental Science · Geophysics and Gravity Measurements · Geology · Oceanography
| Highly cited | No |
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