Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15544486 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jie Jiang (0009-0006-7125-4253, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Tianjun Zhou (0000-0002-5829-7279, Chinese Academy of Sciences, corresponding author), Xiaolong Chen (0000-0001-5456-4790, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Lixia Zhang (0000-0002-7662-7673, Chinese Academy of Sciences) |
| Year | 2020 |
| Volume | 15 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 054009-054009 |
| Publication date | 2020-03-05 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d03 |
| OpenAlex | W3009925096 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 9 |
| References cited | 39 |
A stronger than global mean warming trend is projected over Central Asia in the coming century. Based on the historical simulations and projections under four combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) provided by 15 models from the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we show a comprehensive picture of the future changes in precipitation over Central Asia under rapid warming and investigate possible mechanisms. At the end of the twenty-first century, robust increase of annual mean precipitation under all the scenarios is found (4.23 [2.60 to 7.36] %, 10.52 [5.05 to 13.36] %, 14.51 [8.11 to 16.91] %, 14.41 [9.58 to 21.26] % relative to the present-day for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively). The response of precipitation to increasing global mean temperature shows similar spatial patterns for the four scenarios with stronger changes over Tianshan mountain and the northern part of Central Asia. Further analysis reveals a wetting trend in spring and a drying trend in summer in both the north of Central Asia (NCA) and south of Central Asia (SCA). The wetting trend in spring is balanced by the increase of evaporation, while the drying trend in summer is mainly contributed by the decrease of vertical moisture advection. The thermodynamic effects associated with humidity changes contribute to the drying trends in both the two domains, while the dynamic effects favor for the drying trend in NCA and offset the drying trend in SCA. The response of precipitation to increasing temperature results in enhanced seasonalities for SCA and NCA, and an advancing of the first peak from summer to spring in the NCA
Atmospheric sciences · Central asia · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Coupled model intercomparison project · Geography · Global warming · Mean radiant temperature · Meteorology · Physical geography · Precipitation · Relative humidity · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Hydrology and Drought Analysis · Geology
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| Unique citing works | 9 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,5 |
| Citation span | 2020 - 2025 (6) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 9 |