Process-based climate change assessment for European winds using Euro-Cordex and global models
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15544506 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jan Wohland (0000-0001-8336-0009, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue | 12 |
| Pages | 124047-124047 |
| Publication date | 2022-11-30 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aca77f |
| OpenAlex | W4311761377 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 37 |
Wind energy is an important pillar of decarbonization strategies and potentially vulnerable to climate change. Existing wind climate change assessments rely on climate models but a systematic investigation of the global-to-regional climate modeling chain is missing. In this study, I highlight key limitations, namely (a) the differing representation of land use change in global and regional climate models which compromises comparability, and (b) the consistency of large-scale features along the global-to-regional climate modeling chain. To this end, I analyze the large European Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble (rcp85: N = 49; rcp45: N = 18; rcp26: N = 22) along with the driving global models (rcp85: N = 7; rcp45: N = 5; rcp26: N = 7), finding evidence that climate change reduces mean wind speeds by up to −0.8 m s −1 (offshore) and −0.3 m s −1 (onshore). I provide physical explanations for these changes by identifying two key drivers. First, onshore wind speeds drop in the driving global models in regions and scenarios with strong land use change but show no drop in EURO-CORDEX where land use is held constant. Second, offshore wind reductions follow decreases in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient remarkably well with correlations reaching around 0.9 in resource-rich European countries like Ireland, the United Kingdom and Norway, implying that arctic amplification is a severe risk for European offshore wind energy. My results suggest that earlier conclusions of negligible climate change impacts on wind energy might be premature if either land use changes strongly or polar amplification is at or above the range sampled in global climate models
Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Downscaling · Global wind patterns · Offshore wind power · Wind power · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Geology
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization
Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100
The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions
Euro-Cordex
Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario
Mitigating a century of European renewable variability with transmission and informed siting
Climate change impact on Northwestern African offshore wind energy resources
Future evolution of surface solar radiation and photovoltaic potential in Europe
Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming
Modelling interdecadal climate variability and the role of the ocean
| Unique citing works | 3 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,5 |
| Citation span | 2024 - 2025 (2) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 3 |