Dependence of tropical cyclone damage on maximum wind speed and socioeconomic factors

Bibliographic Data

ID15544679
AuthorsMengqi Ye (0000-0003-4074-4744, corresponding author), Jidong Wu (0000-0001-8208-8373), Wenhui Liu (0009-0001-1204-847X), Xin He (0000-0002-9814-1666), Cailin Wang (0000-0003-2340-9426)
Year2020
Volume15
Issue9
Pages094061-094061
Publication date2020-06-11
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ab9be2
OpenAlexW3035547253
LanguageEN
Citations received3
References cited56

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have devastating impacts and are responsible for significant damage. Consequently, for TC-induced direct economic loss (DEL) attribution all factors associated with risk (i.e. hazard, exposure and vulnerability) must be examined. This research quantifies the relationship between TC-induced DELs and maximum wind speed, asset value and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita using a regression model with TC records from 2000 to 2015 for China’s mainland area. The coefficient of the maximum wind speed term indicates that a doubling of the maximum wind speed increases DELs by 225% [97%, 435%] when the other two variables are held constant. The coefficient of the asset value term indicates that a doubling of asset value exposed to TCs increases DELs by 79% [58%, 103%]; thus, if hazard and vulnerability are assumed to be constant in the future, then a dramatic escalation in TC-induced DELs will occur given the increase in asset value, suggesting that TC-prone areas with rapid urbanization and wealth accumulation will inevitably be subject to higher risk. Reducing the asset value exposure via land-use planning, for example, is important for decreasing TC risk. The coefficient of GDP per capita term indicates that a doubling in GDP per capita could decrease DELs by 54% [39%, 66%]. Because accumulated assets constantly increase people’s demand for improved security, stakeholders must invest in risk identification, early warning systems, emergency management and other effective prevention measures with increasing income to reduce vulnerability. This research aims to quantitatively connect TC risk (expected DELs, specifically) to physical and socioeconomic drivers and emphasizes how human dimensions could contribute to TC risk. Moreover, the model can be used to estimate TC risk under climate change and future socioeconomic development in the context of China

Econometrics · Economic growth · Economics · Geography · Gross domestic product · Meteorology · Natural resource economics · Per capita · Population · Wind speed · Disaster Management and Resilience · Environmental Science · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Demography

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