Increasing population exposure to global warm-season concurrent dry and hot extremes under different warming levels
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15544707 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Wenbin Liu (0000-0003-0390-8455, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Fubao Sun (0000-0002-7439-8272, Chinese Academy of Sciences, corresponding author), Yao Feng (0000-0001-9874-1031, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Chao Li (0000-0002-7543-3973, East China Normal University), Jie Chen (0000-0002-9254-4413, Wuhan University), Yan‐Fang Sang (0000-0001-6770-9311, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Qiang Zhang (0000-0003-4613-3100, Beijing Normal University) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 16 |
| Issue | 9 |
| Pages | 094002-094002 |
| Publication date | 2021-07-28 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac188f |
| OpenAlex | W3196026266 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 8 |
| References cited | 52 |
Projecting future changes in concurrent dry and hot extremes (CDHEs) and the subsequent socio-economic risks (e.g. population exposure) is critical for climate adaptation and water management under different warming targets. However, to date, this aspect remains poorly understood on both global and regional scales. In this study, the changes in future CDHEs and their population exposures under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C warming were quantified using a Standardized Dry and Hot Index calculated based on the newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate model outputs and global population datasets. It was found that relative to the baseline period (1986–2005), the severity of CDHEs would increase on the global scale and in most regions, such as in Southern Europe, the Mediterranean, Sahara, West Africa, Central America, Mexico, the Amazon, and the west coast of South America under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of warming. Stabilizing the warming at 1.5 °C would constrain the adverse influence of CDHEs on the population suffering from severe CDHEs in most regions (especially in Central Europe, Southern Europe, the Mediterranean, Eastern North America, West Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia). Globally, the population impacted by severe CDHEs (with a constant 2000 population) would increase by 108 and 266 million (149 and 367 million when constant 2080 population is applied) for 2 °C and 3 °C increase compared to a 1.5 °C increase. These findings provide scientific evidence of the benefit of limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5 °C in terms of the socio-economic risks related to CDHEs
Biology · China · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Dry season · East Asia · Geography · Global warming · Mediterranean climate · Population · Representative Concentration Pathways · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Hydrology and Drought Analysis · Demography · Ecology
Regional Disparity in Impacts of Compound Heat and Drought Extremes on Population and Major Crops Across China
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Effects of cryospheric hydrological processes on future flood inundation and the subsequent socioeconomic exposures in Central Asia
Large-scale circulation dominated precipitation variation and its effect on potential water availability across the Tibetan Plateau
Landscape vulnerability assessment driven by drought and precipitation anomalies in sub-Saharan Africa
Characteristics of population exposure to climate extremes from regional to global 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming in CMIP6 models
Excess mortality associated with extreme heat in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2023
Influence of extreme heat waves as an aggravating factor in the cause of death from cardiovascular diseases in Southeast Brazil
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A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming
Changes in the severity of compound drought and hot extremes over global land areas
Drought effects on US maize and soybean production
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Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Extreme heat waves under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming
Increased population exposure to extreme droughts in China due to 0.5 °C of additional warming
Increased probability of compound long-duration dry and hot events in Europe during summer (1950–2013)
| Unique citing works | 8 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2 |
| Citation span | 2022 - 2026 (5) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 8 |