Stranded assets and early closures in global coal mining under 1.5 ∘ C
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15544733 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Christian Hauenstein (0000-0001-9077-2220, German Institute for Economic Research, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 18 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 024021-024021 |
| Publication date | 2023-01-06 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/acb0e5 |
| OpenAlex | W4313613619 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 5 |
| References cited | 46 |
With the Glasgow Climate Pact 2021, the global community has committed explicitly to phasing down coal consumption. Yet the coal supply sector continues to develop new capacities, despite the risk of asset stranding. This article presents the first assessment of the implications of 1.5 ∘ C mitigation pathways for the coal mining industry. Based on open coal mine data and a new version of the open coal sector model COALMOD-World, the prospects for individual coal mining regions and their risk of early mine closures and asset stranding are analyzed. Results show that global cumulative production capacity from operating thermal coal mines exceed the remaining consumption values for 2020 through 2050 by more than 50%. This supply-consumption discrepancy would hit Russia and the USA especially hard, causing the stranding of around 80% of operating capacities in each case. But the early closure of operating coal mines would affect all of the world’s major thermal coal producing regions, with most regions seeing more than three-fourths of their mine capacity closing early by 2030. Stranded assets from operating coal mines would total some USD 2015 120 to 150 billion until 2050, with an additional USD 2015 100 billion should currently proposed new coal mining projects be realized. If demand declines in accordance with 1.5 ∘ C pathways, new coal mines or mine extensions would be redundant in all coal regions. Although the stranded asset value of mines is relatively small compared to that of the coal power plant sector, early closures would especially affect workers and local communities. Thus, efforts are urgently needed to ensure a just transition in coal mining regions and to address excess operating and proposed coal supply capacities that continue to fuel global warming
Asset (computer security · Coal · Coal mining · Consumption (sociology · Economics · Mining engineering · Natural resource economics · Waste management · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Computer Science · Engineering · Environmental Science · Global Energy and Sustainability Research · Mining and Resource Management
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Stranded assets from climate change and its response strategies
Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world
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The future of coal in a carbon-constrained climate
Carbon capture and storage at the end of a lost decade
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Cost reductions in renewables can substantially erode the value of carbon capture and storage in mitigation pathways
Coal transitions—part 1
Assessing carbon lock-in
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Existing fossil fuel extraction would warm the world beyond 1.5 °C
Systematic map of the literature on carbon lock-in induced by long-lived capital
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Quantifying the regional stranded asset risks from new coal plants under 1.5 °C
Committed emissions from existing and planned power plants and asset stranding required to meet the Paris Agreement
Utilizing the past
Potential emissions of CO2 and methane from proved reserves of fossil fuels
Scaling just transitions
| Unique citing works | 5 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,67 |
| Citation span | 2023 - 2026 (4) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 5 |