A tale of two springs

Using recent climate anomalies to characterize the sensitivity of temperate forest phenology to climate change

Bibliographic Data

ID15544768
AuthorsM A Friedl (0000-0001-6899-2948, Boston University, corresponding author), Josh Gray (0000-0003-4341-4353, Boston University), Josh M Gray, E K Melaas (0000-0002-8351-3674, Boston University), Andrew D Richardson (0000-0002-0148-6714, Harvard University), Koen Hufkens (0000-0002-5070-8109, Boston University), Trevor F Keenan (0000-0002-3347-0258, Harvard University), Amey S Bailey (0000-0003-4093-8450, US Forest Service), Amey Bailey, John O’Keefe (0000-0001-5697-4881, Dana-Farber/Harvard Cancer Center)
Year2014
Volume9
Issue5
Pages054006-054006
Publication date2014-05-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/9/5/054006
OpenAlexW2164968108
LanguageEN
Citations received3
References cited34

By the end of this century, mean annual temperatures in the Northeastern United States are expected to warm by 3–5 °C, which will have significant impacts on the structure and function of temperate forests in this region. To improve understanding of these impacts, we exploited two recent climate anomalies to explore how the springtime phenology of Northeastern temperate deciduous forests will respond to future climate warming. Specifically, springtime temperatures in 2010 and 2012 were the warmest on record in the Northeastern United States, with temperatures that were roughly equivalent to the lower end of warming scenarios that are projected for this region decades from now. Climate conditions in these two years therefore provide a unique empirical basis, that complements model-based studies, for improving understanding of how northeastern temperate forest phenology will change in the future. To perform our investigation, we analyzed near surface air temperatures from the United States Historical Climatology Network, time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and in situ phenological observations. Our study region encompassed the northern third of the eastern temperate forest ecoregion, extending from Pennsylvania to Canada. Springtime temperatures in 2010 and 2012 were nearly 3 °C warmer than long-term average temperatures from 1971–2000 over the region, leading to median anomalies of more than 100 growing degree days. In response, satellite and ground observations show that leaf emergence occurred up to two weeks earlier than normal, but with significant sensitivity to the specific timing of thermal forcing. These results are important for two reasons. First, they provide an empirical demonstration of the sensitivity of springtime phenology in northeastern temperate forests to future climate change that supports and complements model-based predictions. Second, our results show that subtle differences in the character of thermal forcing can substantially alter the timing of leaf emergence and canopy development. By explicitly comparing and contrasting the timing of thermal forcing and leaf phenology in 2010 and 2012, we show that even though temperatures were warmer in 2012 than in 2010, the nature and timing of thermal forcing in 2010 lead to leaf emergence that was almost a week earlier than 2012

Atmospheric sciences · Climate change · Climatology · Deciduous · Ecoregion · Ecosystem · Geography · Moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer · Phenology · Physical geography · Satellite · Temperate climate · Temperate deciduous forest · Temperate forest · Temperate rainforest · Environmental Science · Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics · Remote Sensing in Agriculture · Species Distribution and Climate Change · Ecology · Geology

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