Projected increases in tropical cyclone-induced U.S. electric power outage risk

Bibliographic Data

ID15544835
AuthorsJulian Rice (0000-0003-3253-7833, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, corresponding author), Karthik Balaguru (0000-0003-0181-2687, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), Andrea Staid (0000-0001-6125-5814, Electric Power Research Institute), Wenwei Xu (0000-0002-4518-1867, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), David Judi (0000-0003-0989-4525, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)
Year2025
Volume20
Issue3
Pages034030-034030
Publication date2025-02-21
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/adad85
OpenAlexW4407827117
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited57

While power outages caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) already pose a great threat to coastal communities, how—and why—these risks will change in a warming climate is poorly understood. To address this need, we develop a robust machine learning model to capture TC-induced power outage risk. When applied to 900 000 synthetic TCs downscaled from simulated historical and future climate conditions under a strong warming scenario, we find outage risk in the United States and Puerto Rico is expected to increase broadly by the end of the century, with some states seeing increases of 60% and higher. Further, we discover that rising rainfall rates will play an increasingly important role in TC-induced power outage risk as the climate changes, explaining more than 50% of the projected change in risk in some regions. These insights are important for guiding decision-makers in their future outage risk investment and mitigation plans

Atmospheric sciences · Climatology · Meteorology · Physics · Tropical cyclone · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Geology

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