Futures of global urban expansion
Uncertainties and implications for biodiversity conservation
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15544893 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Burak Güneralp (0000-0002-5825-0630, Texas A&M University, corresponding author), Karen C Seto (0000-0002-4928-2446, Yale University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2013 |
| Volume | 8 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 014025-014025 |
| Publication date | 2013-02-19 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014025 |
| OpenAlex | W1993158459 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 68 |
| References cited | 54 |
Urbanization will place significant pressures on biodiversity across the world. However, there are large uncertainties in the amount and location of future urbanization, particularly urban land expansion. Here, we present a global analysis of urban extent circa 2000 and probabilistic forecasts of urban expansion for 2030 near protected areas and in biodiversity hotspots. We estimate that the amount of urban land within 50 km of all protected area boundaries will increase from 450 000 km ^2 circa 2000 to 1440 000 ± 65 000 km ^2 in 2030. Our analysis shows that protected areas around the world will experience significant increases in urban land within 50 km of their boundaries. China will experience the largest increase in urban land near protected areas with 304 000 ± 33 000 km ^2 of new urban land to be developed within 50 km of protected area boundaries. The largest urban expansion in biodiversity hotspots, over 100 000 ± 25 000 km ^2 , is forecasted to occur in South America. Uncertainties in the forecasts of the amount and location of urban land expansion reflect uncertainties in their underlying drivers including urban population and economic growth. The forecasts point to the need to reconcile urban development and biodiversity conservation strategies
Biodiversity · China · Economic growth · Economics · Environmental resource management · Geography · Land use · Population · Urban climate · Urban expansion · Urban planning · Urbanization · Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management · Economic and Environmental Valuation · Environmental Science · Land Use and Ecosystem Services · Ecology
Forest ecosystem-service transitions
Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways
Urban land expansion
Future global urban water scarcity and potential solutions
Biodiversity in cities needs space
Global impacts of future urban expansion on terrestrial vertebrate diversity
Biodiversity impacts and conservation implications of urban land expansion projected to 2050
Spatio-temporal dynamics in seismic exposure of Asian megacities
Projecting global urban land expansion and heat island intensification through 2050
Indicator-based assessment of the liveability of communities in the Accra Metropolitan Area, Ghana
Vulnerable Cores, Expanding Peripheries
Spatial Pattern of Construction Land Distribution in Bays along the Coast of Vietnam
Spatial Dynamics and Drivers of Urban Growth in Thua Thien Hue Province, Vietnam
Geographic micro-process model
Optimising the geometry of protected areas to mitigate exposure risk from anthropogenic pressure in urbanising regions
Urbanisation of a growing tropical mega-city during the 21st century — Landscape transformation and vegetation dynamics
Exploring how urban nature is associated with human wellbeing in a neotropical city
A systematic map of research exploring the effect of greenspace on mental health
Understanding typhoon-induced vegetation loss and potential ecosystem disservices from land use zonings perspective in high-density Hong Kong
A influência de instrumentos de políticas públicas para a conservação – uma ótica sobre o pagamento dos serviços ambientais
Estimation of Ecosystem Services (EESs) loss due to transformation of Local Climatic Zones (LCZs) in Sriniketan-Santiniketan Planning Area (SSPA)West Bengal, India
Spatial heterogeneity and driving mechanisms of carbon storage in the urban agglomeration within complex terrain
Valuing the cultural services from urban blue‐space ecosystems in Japanese megacities during the Covid ‐19 pandemic
Urban land expanded closer to protected areas in China
Rethinking nature-based solutions in informal settlements
Trends in forest fragment research in Madagascar
A challenge for ecocide scholarship
Autonomous re-naturalization of cities in a context of degrowth
Balancing on carbon storage and ecological security in urban areas
Perception of Urban Green Areas Associated with Sociodemographic Affiliation, Structural Elements, and Acceptance Stripes
Research gaps in knowledge of the impact of urban growth on biodiversity
Impacts of urban expansion on natural habitats in global drylands
Effectiveness of protected areas influenced by socio-economic context
The geometry of global protected lands
Does Bird Diversity Affect Public Mental Health in Urban Mountain Parks?—A Case Study in Fuzhou City, China
Prediction of Spatiotemporal Changes in Sloping Cropland in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Region under Different Scenarios
Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Landscape Ecological Risk Response Based on Planning Control
Multi-Scenario Analysis of Habitat Quality in the Yellow River Delta by Coupling FLUS with InVest Model
Land use projections in China under global socioeconomic and emission scenarios
Changing global patterns of urban exposure to flood and drought hazards
Beyond green
Understanding drivers of global urban bird diversity
Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Spatial scales and urban greenspace types influence public conservation preferences
Prediction of CO pollutant in Mashhad metropolis, Iran
Large conservation opportunities exist in >90% of tropic-subtropic coastal habitats adjacent to cities
Subnational assessment of threats to Indian biodiversity and habitat restoration opportunities
City-size bias in knowledge on the effects of urban nature on people and biodiversity
A new urban landscape in East–Southeast Asia, 2000–2010
Trends in urban land expansion, density, and land transitions from 1970 to 2010
Urbanization in Africa
Historically grounded spatial population projections for the continental United States
Are soil sealing indicators sufficient to guide urban planning? Insights from an ecosystem services assessment in the Paris metropolitan area
Urban expansion inferenced by ecosystem production on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau
Biodiversity constraint indicator establishment and its optimization for urban growth
Impact of urbanization on US surface climate
Unexploited opportunities in understanding liveable and biodiverse cities. A review on urban biodiversity perception and valuation
Land cover changes and environmental protection
Multi-scale analysis of urban sprawl in Europe
Regeneration in an ecological perspective. Urban and territorial equalisation for the provision of ecosystem services in the Metropolitan City of Milan
Land transformation of Italy due to half a century of urbanization
Trends of “leaving space for wildness” in metropolitan regions in China
Spatial patterns and drivers of urban expansion
On the urban compactness to ecosystem services in a rapidly urbanising metropolitan area
Balancing urban growth and ecological conservation
A spatial population downscaling model for integrated human-environment analysis in the United States
Peri-urbanization, dynamics, and challenges in developing countries towards sustainable urban growth - Special Section Editorial
Factores del deterioro de las áreas naturales protegidas periurbanas del Valle de Puebla, México
Guidelines for applying protected area management categories
Urban form, biodiversity potential and ecosystem services
The dimensions of global urban expansion
The Effects of Urban Patterns on Ecosystem Function
The implications of current and future urbanization for global protected areas and biodiversity conservation
Modeling the Drivers of Urban Land Use Change in the Pearl River Delta, China
A Meta-Analysis of Global Urban Land Expansion
Urbanization, Biodiversity, and Conservation
Increasing Isolation of Protected Areas in Tropical Forests Over the Past Twenty Years
Understanding Patterns of Economic Growth
Global Biodiversity Conservation Priorities
The Role of Protected Areas in Conserving Biodiversity and Sustaining Local Livelihoods
Urbanization as a major cause of biotic homogenization
Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities
Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools
Biodiversity conservation in China
A new map of global urban extent from Modis satellite data
Urban Growth in Developing Countries
China's Population Trends and Their Implications for Fertility Policy
Economic Relations between India and Japan
Urban expansion and the environmental effects of informal settlements on the outskirts of Xalapa city, Veracruz, Mexico
Spatio-temporal Patterns and Driving Forces of Urban Land Expansion in China during the Economic Reform Era
Planetary Stewardship in an Urbanizing World
Unfulfilled Promise
The Informal Sector in Developed and Less Developed Countries
| Unique citing works | 68 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 5,23 |
| Citation span | 2013 - 2026 (14) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 67 |