A synthetic view of rainfall intensification in the West African Sahel
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15544895 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Guillaume Chagnaud (0009-0003-8732-0815, Institut polytechnique de Grenoble, corresponding author), Gérémy Panthou (0000-0002-6906-3654, Institut polytechnique de Grenoble), Théo Vischel (0000-0003-4230-4953, Institut polytechnique de Grenoble), Thierry Lebel (0000-0002-1297-6751, Institut polytechnique de Grenoble) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 044005-044005 |
| Publication date | 2022-01-12 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a9c |
| OpenAlex | W4205108516 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 51 |
The West African Sahel has been facing for more than 30 years an increase in extreme rainfall with strong socio-economic impacts. This situation challenges decision-makers to define adaptation strategies in a rapidly changing climate. The present study proposes (i) a quantitative characterization of the trends in extreme rainfall at the regional scale, (ii) the translation of the trends into metrics that can be used by hydrological risk managers, (iii) elements for understanding the link between the climatology of extreme and mean rainfall. Based on a regional non-stationary statistical model applied to in-situ daily rainfall data over the period 1983–2015, we show that the region-wide increasing trend in extreme rainfall is highly significant. The change in extreme value distribution reflects an increase in both the mean and variability, producing a 5%/decade increase in extreme rainfall intensity whatever the return period. The statistical framework provides operational elements for revising the design methods of hydraulic structures which most often assume a stationary climate. Finally, the study shows that the increase in annual maxima of daily rainfall is more attributable to stronger storm intensities (80%) than to more frequent storm occurrences (20%), reflecting a major rainfall regime shift in comparison to those observed in the region since 1950
Climate change · Climatology · Extreme value theory · Extreme weather · Generalized extreme value distribution · Geography · Meteorology · Return period · Statistics · Storm · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Hydrology and Drought Analysis · Mathematics · Precipitation Measurement and Analysis · Geology
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble
Stationarity Is Dead
Changes in precipitation with climate change
Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C
Rainfall trends in the African Sahel
One Earth, Many Futures, No Destination
A unifying view of climate change in the Sahel linking intra-seasonal, interannual and longer time scales
Rainfall intensification in tropical semi-arid regions
Fingerprints of external forcings on Sahel rainfall
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2026 - 2026 (1) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |