Spatiotemporal dynamics of global population and heat exposure (2020–2100)
Based on improved SSP-consistent population projections
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15544934 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Mengya Li (0009-0007-1835-9782, East China Normal University, corresponding author), Bing-Bing Zhou (Ocean University of China), Minyi Gao (East China Normal University), Yimin Chen (0000-0003-1976-6041, Sun Yat-sen University, corresponding author), Ming Hao (0000-0003-1380-3569, Ministry of Natural Resources), Guohua Hu (0000-0002-7492-1393, East China Normal University), Xia Li (0000-0003-3050-8529, East China Normal University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue | 9 |
| Pages | 094007-094007 |
| Publication date | 2022-08-05 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8755 |
| OpenAlex | W4290099020 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 15 |
| References cited | 49 |
To address future environmental change and consequent social vulnerability, a better understanding of future population (FPOP) dynamics is critical. In this regard, notable progress has been made in producing FPOP projections that are consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) at low resolutions for the globe and high resolutions for specific regions. Building on existing endeavors, here we contribute a new set of 1 km SSP-consistent global population projections (FPOP in short for the dataset) under a machine learning framework. Our approach incorporates a recently available SSP-consistent global built-up land dataset under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6, with the aim to address the misestimation of future built-up land dynamics underlying existing datasets of future global population projections. We show that the overall accuracy of our FPOP outperforms five existing datasets at multiple scales and especially in densely-populated areas (e.g. cities and towns). Followingly, FPOP-based assessments of future global population dynamics suggest a similar trend by population density and a spatial Matthew effect of regional population centralization. Furthermore, FPOP-based estimates of global heat exposure are around 300 billion person-days in 2020 under four SSP-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs), which by 2100 could increase to as low as 516 billion person-days under SSP5-RCP4.5 and as high as 1626 billion person-days under SSP3-RCP8.5—with Asia and Africa contributing 64%–68% and 21%–25%, respectively. While our results shed lights on proactive policy interventions for addressing future global heat hazard, FPOP will enable future-oriented assessments of a wide range of environmental hazards, e.g. hurricanes, droughts, and flooding
Climate change · Climate model · Environmental resource management · Geography · Population · Population growth · Projections of population growth · Representative Concentration Pathways · Vulnerability (computing · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Computer Science · Environmental Science · Impact of Light on Environment and Health · Urban Transport and Accessibility · Demography · Ecology
Exploring the effects of different population projection datasets on global compound drought and heatwave exposure estimates under shared socioeconomic pathways
Future flood risk concentration for residents near small rivers across the USA
Substantially increased risk of elderly to compound heat and drought events in coastal China under 1.5 °C–3.0 °C warming scenarios
An ANN-based method for population Dasymetric mapping to avoid the scale heterogeneity
Urban land-population-economy simulation model
Anthropogenic activities change population heat exposure much more than natural factors and land use change
Future urban ecological land transition and its implications for high-heat exposure in China
Current and future thermal effects and spatial optimization modelling of urban greenspace in megacity
Assessing urban population exposure risk to extreme heat
Projecting temperature-related mortality impacts at urban scale under climate scenarios
High-resolution income projections over the 21st century in Europe consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Substantial increase in population exposure to multiple environmental burdens in sub-Saharan Africa (2000-2019)
Characteristics of population exposure to climate extremes from regional to global 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming in CMIP6 models
Balancing urbanization, agricultural production and ecological integrity
Sub-National Population Projections for Mexico Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in the Context of Climate Change
Mapping global urban land for the 21st century with data-driven simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding
Global urban population exposure to extreme heat
Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways
A new scenario framework for climate change research
Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall's Tau
Provincial and gridded population projection for China under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2010 to 2100
Global spatio-temporally harmonised datasets for producing high-resolution gridded population distribution datasets
The spatial allocation of population
Disaggregating Census Data for Population Mapping Using Random Forests with Remotely-Sensed and Ancillary Data
Flood exposure and social vulnerability in the United States
Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Projecting global urban land expansion and heat island intensification through 2050
Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
High-spatiotemporal-resolution mapping of global urban change from 1985 to 2015
Co-creating local socioeconomic pathways for achieving the sustainable development goals
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications
From shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to oceanic system pathways (OSPs)
The roads ahead
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm
Comparative assessment of gridded population data sets for complex topography
| Unique citing works | 15 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 5 |
| Citation span | 2023 - 2026 (4) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 15 |