Global food self-sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agriculture
Dados Bibliográficos
| ID | 15545002 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Areidy Aracely Beltran-Peña (0000-0001-9448-1156, University of California, Berkeley, autor correspondente), Lorenzo Rosa (0000-0002-1280-9945, University of California, Berkeley), Paolo D’odorico (0000-0002-0007-5833, University of California, Berkeley) |
| Ano | 2020 |
| Volume | 15 |
| Fascículo | 9 |
| Páginas | 095004-095004 |
| Data de publicação | 2020-05-15 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sim |
| Open Access | Sim |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Periódico | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores do periódico | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Editora | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9388 |
| OpenAlex | W3025198026 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citações recebidas | 34 |
| Referências citadas | 59 |
Meeting the increasing global demand for agricultural products without depleting the limited resources of the planet is a major challenge that humanity is facing. Most studies on global food security do not make projections past the year 2050, just as climate change and increasing demand for food are expected to intensify. Moreover, past studies do not account for the water sustainability limits of irrigation expansion to presently rainfed areas. Here we perform an integrated assessment that considers a range of factors affecting future food production and demand throughout the 21st century. We evaluate the self-sufficiency of 165 countries under sustainability, middle-of-the-road, and business-as-usual scenarios considering changes in diet, population, agricultural intensification, and climate. We find that under both the middle-of-the-road and business-as-usual trajectories global food self-sufficiency is likely to decline despite increased food production through sustainable agricultural intensification since projected food demand exceeds potential production. Contrarily, under a sustainability scenario, we estimate that there will be enough food production to feed the global population. However, most countries in Africa and the Middle East will continue to be heavily reliant on imports throughout the 21st century under all scenarios. These results highlight future hotspots of crop production deficits, reliance on food imports, and vulnerability to food supply shocks
Agricultural economics · Agricultural productivity · Agriculture · Business · Climate change · Economics · Food processing · Food security · Food systems · Geography · Natural resource economics · Political science · Population · Production (economics · Sustainability · Vulnerability (computing · Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies · Ecology
Global multi-model trends of unsustainable irrigation under climate change scenarios
The role of food and land use systems in achieving India’s sustainability targets
Energy and food security implications of transitioning synthetic nitrogen fertilizers to net-zero emissions
Metabolic agricultural ethics
Biomass use and its implications for bioeconomy development
Beyond the plate
Action-oriented urban agriculture opportunity spaces
A systematic literature review of factors influencing national food self-sufficiency
Confronting sustainable intensification with uncertainty and extreme values on smallholder tropical farms
Organic agriculture in a low-emission world
Assessing land use change trajectories following food insecurity shocks in 25 low- and middle-income countries
Profiles of home language experiences of Spanish-English dual language learners in migrant and seasonal head start programs
Contextualising farmer perspectives on regenerative agriculture
Economic analysis of food self-sufficiency
Quantitative assessment of agricultural sustainability reveals divergent priorities among nations
Global agricultural trade and land system sustainability
Water scarcity challenges across urban regions with expanding irrigation
Global energy and carbon emissions of irrigation and fertilizers management for closing crop yield gaps
Potential of wastewater reuse to alleviate water scarcity under future warming scenarios
Global potential nitrogen recovery from anaerobic digestion of agricultural residues
Adapting agriculture to climate change via sustainable irrigation
How high frequency food diaries can transform understanding of food security
Beyond the Green Revolution
Socio-economic, environmental and health impacts of dietary transformation in Bangladesh
How are decarbonization policies in the US and Canada shaping low-carbon ammonia production strategies
Global biomethane and carbon dioxide removal potential through anaerobic digestion of waste biomass
Accounting for socioeconomic constraints in sustainable irrigation expansion assessments
Finding and fixing food system emissions
Estimating and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture in West Africa
Addressing Ethiopia's grand challenge of achieving food security while ensuring land-use sustainability
Multidimensional deconstruction and workable solutions for addressing China's food security issues
A framework to link climate change, food security, and migration
Rising disparities in grain self-sufficiency across China
Toward food sovereignty and self-sufficiency in Latin America and the Caribbean
Intensification for redesigned and sustainable agricultural systems
Feeding humanity through global food trade
Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits
Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture
The Global Food‐Energy‐Water Nexus
Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050
Lost food, wasted resources
From Food Insufficiency towards Trade Dependency
How a century of ammonia synthesis changed the world
The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP)
Yield gap analysis with local to global relevance—A review
Sustainable Intensification in Agriculture
The representative concentration pathways
Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison
A new scenario framework for climate change research
Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management
Crop Yield Gaps
Solutions for a cultivated planet
Food Security
Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty
How much does climate change add to the challenge of feeding the planet this century
Integrated crop water management might sustainably halve the global food gap
Resilience in the global food system
Global virtual water trade and the hydrological cycle
Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks
Eating on an interconnected planet
Diet change—a solution to reduce water use
Redefining agricultural yields
The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields
Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system
Closing the yield gap while ensuring water sustainability
Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption
Global unsustainable virtual water flows in agricultural trade
Governance in socioeconomic pathways and its role for future adaptive capacity
Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries
Bringing it all together
The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity
Ssp3
The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm
Minimising the harm to biodiversity of producing more food globally
| Obras citantes distintas | 34 |
|---|---|
| Citações por ano | 6,8 |
| Intervalo de citações | 2021 - 2026 (6) |
| Velocidade de citação | current |
| Altamente citado | Não |
| Tipos de citação | Neutras: 34 |