Economic impacts of climate change on EU agriculture
Will the farmers benefit from global climate change
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15545126 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jordan Hristov (0000-0002-9303-5645, European Commission, corresponding author), Ignácio Pérez Domínguez (0000-0002-0279-6263, European Commission), Thomas Fellmann (0000-0002-4798-329X, European Commission), Christian Elleby (0000-0002-2955-6438, European Commission) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 19 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 014027-014027 |
| Publication date | 2023-11-20 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ad0e34 |
| OpenAlex | W4388817675 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 32 |
This paper analyses how climate change might impact EU agricultural markets by mid-century, considering a large ensemble of climate change projections from different models, market adjustments and trade feedbacks. Applying consistent climate change driven productivity shocks to a global multi-commodity agricultural market model we show that the negative direct effects from climate change on crop production in the EU could be offset by market and trade adjustments. The simulations reveal that climate change has heterogeneous impacts across regions. EU farming sector, in particular, might actually benefit from climate change as the impacts on agricultural productivity are expected to be more severe in important non-EU production regions such as US, Russia and Ukraine, depending on the crop. Higher producer prices for important crops such as wheat, barley, grain maize, rice and soybeans, lead to an increase in EU production and exports. For instance EU wheat production could increase by 13% and exports by 28%, with 19% higher farm incomes on average than in a business-as-usual situation. Our study has several limitations. In particular, we do not consider CO2 fertilization effects and direct effect from climate change on livestock sector, climate variability and extreme weather effects. Notwithstanding, our findings highlight the heterogeneity of climate change impacts across regions, specifically Northern versus Southern Europe, and the importance of market and trade adjustments as economic adaptation mechanisms to climate change
Agricultural economics · Agricultural productivity · Agriculture · Climate change · Commodity · Economics · Effects of global warming · Geography · Global warming · Market economy · Natural resource economics · Political economy of climate change · Production (economics · Productivity · Agricultural risk and resilience · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Environmental Science · Ecology
Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change
Climate risk management and rural poverty reduction
Climate change effects on agriculture
Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change
Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe
Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios
Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050
The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications
Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios
| Highly cited | No |
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