Shorter cyclone clusters modulate changes in European wintertime precipitation extremes
Datos Bibliográficos
| ID | 15545149 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Emanuele Bevacqua (0000-0003-0472-5183, University of Reading, autor de correspondencia), Giuseppe Zappa (0000-0003-4306-7451, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate), Theodore G Shepherd (0000-0002-6631-9968, University of Reading) |
| Año | 2020 |
| Volumen | 15 |
| Número | 12 |
| Páginas | 124005-124005 |
| Fecha de publicación | 2020-10-02 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sí |
| Open Access | Sí |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Revista | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores de la revista | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Editorial | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/abbde7 |
| OpenAlex | W3089748342 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citas recibidas | 1 |
| Referencias citadas | 51 |
Wintertime extreme precipitation from cyclone clusters, i.e. consecutive cyclones moving across the same region, can lead to flooding and devastating socio-economic impacts in Europe. Previous studies have suggested that the future direction of the changes in these events are uncertain across climate models. By employing an impact-based metric of accumulated precipitation extremes, we show that projections of cyclone clusters are instead broadly robust, i.e. consistent in sign, across models. A novel physical diagnostic shows that accumulated precipitation extremes are projected to grow by only +1.0 %/K on average across Europe, although the mean precipitation per cyclone increases by +4.7 %/K. This results from a decreased number of clustered cyclones, associated with decreased wintertime storminess, the extent of which varies from northern to southern Europe and depends on the future storyline of atmospheric circulation change. Neglecting the changes in the number of clustered cyclones, i.e. assuming that accumulated precipitation extremes would change as the mean precipitation per cyclone, would lead to overestimating the population affected by increased accumulated wintertime precipitation extremes by 130–490 million across Europe
Atmospheric sciences · Climate change · Climatology · Cyclone (programming language · Flooding (psychology · Geography · Meteorology · Population · Precipitation · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Geology · Oceanography
| Obras citantes distintas | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citas por año | 1 |
| Intervalo de citas | 2025 - 2025 (1) |
| Velocidad de citación | recent |
| Altamente citado | No |
| Tipos de cita | Neutras: 1 |