Strong increase in mortality attributable to ozone pollution under a climate change and demographic scenario

Dados Bibliográficos

ID15545155
AutoresDimitris Akritidis (0000-0003-3104-5271, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, autor correspondente), Sara Bacer (0000-0003-0052-1968, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry), Prodromos Zanis (0000-0002-3496-2692, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki), Aristeidis K Georgoulias (0000-0002-0857-3220, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki), Sourangsu Chowdhury (0000-0002-4600-2226, CICERO Center for International Climate Research), Larry W Horowitz (0000-0002-5886-3314, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), Vaishali Naïk (0000-0002-2254-1700, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), Fiona M O’Connor (0000-0003-2893-4828, Met Office), James Keeble (0000-0003-2714-1084, University of Cambridge), Philippe Le Sager (0000-0002-2855-668X, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute), Twan van Noije (0000-0002-5148-5867, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute), Putian Zhou (0000-0003-0803-7337, University of Helsinki), Steven T Turnock (0000-0002-0036-4627, Met Office), J Jason West (0000-0001-5652-4987, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill), Jos Lelieveld (0000-0001-6307-3846, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry), Andrea Pozzer (0000-0003-2440-6104, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry)
Ano2024
Volume19
Fascículo2
Páginas024041-024041
Data de publicação2024-01-22
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
EditoraIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ad2162
OpenAlexW4391090451
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas1
Referências citadas46

Long-term exposure to ambient ozone (O 3 ) is associated with excess respiratory mortality. Pollution emissions, demographic, and climate changes are expected to drive future ozone-related mortality. Here, we assess global mortality attributable to ozone according to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario applied in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, projecting a temperature increase of about 3.6 °C by the end of the century. We estimated ozone-related mortality on a global scale up to 2090 following the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 approach, using bias-corrected simulations from three CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) under the SSP3-7.0 emissions scenario. Based on the three ESMs simulations, global ozone-related mortality by 2090 will amount to 2.79 M [95% CI 0.97 M–5.23 M] to 3.12 M [95% CI 1.11 M–5.75 M] per year, approximately ninefold that of the 327 K [95% CI 103 K–652 K] deaths per year in 2000. Climate change alone may lead to an increase of ozone-related mortality in 2090 between 42 K [95% CI −37 K–122 K] and 217 K [95% CI 68 K–367 K] per year. Population growth and ageing are associated with an increase in global ozone-related mortality by a factor of 5.34, while the increase by ozone trends alone ranges between factors of 1.48 and 1.7. Ambient ozone pollution under the high-emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario is projected to become a significant human health risk factor. Yet, optimizing living conditions and healthcare standards worldwide to the optimal ones today (application of minimum baseline mortality rates) will help mitigate the adverse consequences associated with population growth and ageing, and ozone increases caused by pollution emissions and climate change

Atmospheric sciences · Biology · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Coupled model intercomparison project · Environmental health · Geography · Meteorology · Ozone · Population · Representative Concentration Pathways · Air Quality and Health Impacts · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Environmental Science · Global Health Care Issues · Medicine · Ecology · Pollution