Skip to main content

ETHNOS_APP

Home • Search • Journals • List 0

Livestock in a changing climate

Production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture

Bibliographic Data

ID15545259
AuthorsIsabelle Weindl (0000-0002-7651-6930, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, corresponding author), Hermann Lotze‐campen (0000-0002-0003-5508, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin), Alexander Popp (0000-0001-9500-1986, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), Christoph Müller (0000-0001-9399-6676, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), Peter Havlík (0000-0001-5551-5085, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis), Mario Herrero (0000-0002-7741-5090, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation), Christoph Schmitz (0000-0003-4579-2454, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), Susanne Rolinski (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Year2015
Volume10
Issue9
Pages094021-094021
Publication date2015-09-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094021
OpenAlexW2232816931
LanguageEN
Citations received11
References cited70

Livestock farming is the world's largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US$). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource- and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction

Agricultural economics · Agricultural productivity · Agriculture · Agroforestry · Business · Climate change · Economics · Environmental resource management · Geography · Gross margin · Livestock · Natural resource economics · Production (economics · Productivity · Rangeland · Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Environmental Science · Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics · Ecology · Forestry

  • Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation

    Open Access•Karlheinz Erb, Christian Lauk et al.•Nature Communications•2016

  • Sustainable livelihood security of small farmers improved through a resilient farming system in the semiarid region of India

    Open Access•Natesan Ravisankar, Meraj A Ansari et al.•Land Degradation and Development•2022

  • Urban Climate-Proof Finance for Disaster-Resilient Infrastructure

    Open Access•Salil K Sen, Viput Ongsakul•Environment and Urbanization Asia•2018

  • Overcoming climate change adaptation barriers

    Open Access•Joe F Bozeman, Rayne Bozeman et al.•Journal of Industrial Ecology•2020

  • Livestock production and the water challenge of future food supply

    Open Access•Isabelle Weindl, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky et al.•Global Environmental Change•2017

  • Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways

    Open Access•Alexander Popp, Katherine Calvin et al.•Global Environmental Change•2016

  • Fossil-fueled development (SSP5)

    Open Access•Elmar Kriegler, Nico Bauer et al.•Global Environmental Change•2016

  • Livestock Diversification for Improved Resilience and Welfare Outcomes Under Climate Risks in Kenya

    Open Access•Marther W Ngigi, Ulrike Mueller et al.•European Journal of Development…•2020

  • Historical trade-offs of livestock’s environmental impacts

    Open Access•Keith F Davis, Kailiang Yu et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2015

  • Afforestation to mitigate climate change

    Open Access•Ulrich Kreidenweis, Florian Humpenöder et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2016

  • Prioritizing fodder species based on traditional knowledge

    Open Access•Yanfei Geng, Guoxiong Hu et al.•Journal of Ethnobiology and…•2017

  • Water for Food Water for Life

    Jean-Marc Faurès, Mark Svendsen et al.•Water for Food Water for Life•2013

  • Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution

    Open Access•Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Alexander Popp et al.•Nature Communications•2014

  • The impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems in developing countries

    Open Access•Philip K Thornton, J van de Steeg et al.•Agricultural Systems•2009

  • Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance

    Open Access•Alberte Bondeau, PASCALLE C SMITH et al.•Global Change Biology•2007

  • Cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by sparing land from deforestation

    Open Access•Avery S Cohn, Aline Mosnier et al.•Proceedings of the National…•2014

  • Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions

    Open Access•Peter Havlík, Petr Havlík et al.•Proceedings of the National…•2014

  • Biomass use, production, feed efficiencies, and greenhouse gas emissions from global livestock systems

    Open Access•Mario Herrero, Peter Havlík et al.•Proceedings of the National…•2013

  • Exploring global changes in nitrogen and phosphorus cycles in agriculture induced by livestock production over the 1900–2050 period

    Open Access•Lex Bouwman, Kees Klein Goldewijk et al.•Proceedings of the National…•2013

  • Smart Investments in Sustainable Food Production

    Open Access•Mario Herrero, Philip K Thornton et al.•Science•2010

  • Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels

    Open Access•Detlef P Van Vuuren, M Den Elzen et al.•Climatic Change•2007

  • A biochemical model of photosynthetic CO2 assimilation in leaves of C3 species

    Open Access•Graham D Farquhar, Susanne von Caemmerer et al.•Planta•1980

  • The DSSAT cropping system model

    Open Access•J W Jones, Gerrit Hoogenboom et al.•European Journal of Agronomy•2003

  • Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system

    Open Access•Stefanie Rost, Dieter Gerten et al.•Water Resources Research•2008

  • Climate change effects on agriculture

    Open Access•Gerald C Nelson, Hugo Valin et al.•Proceedings of the National…•2014

  • Climate benefits of changing diet

    Open Access•Elke Stehfest, Lex Bouwman et al.•Climatic Change•2009

  • Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

    Open Access•Cynthia Rosenzweig, Joshua Elliott et al.•Proceedings of the National…•2014

  • Climate change risks for African agriculture

    Open Access•Christoph Müller, Wolfgang Cramer et al.•Proceedings of the National…•2011

  • How much land‐based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?

    Open Access•Pete Smith, H Haberl et al.•Global Change Biology•2013

  • Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model

    Open Access•S Sitch, Benjamin Smith et al.•Global Change Biology•2003

  • Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources

    Open Access•Hermann Lotze‐campen, Christoph Müller et al.•Agricultural Economics•2008

  • Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture

    Open Access•Wolfram Schlenker, David B Lobell•Environmental Research Letters•2010

  • Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems

    Open Access•David Leclère, Peter Havlík et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2014

  • Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions

    Open Access•Hugo Valin, Peter Havlík et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2013

  • Global patterns of socioeconomic biomass flows in the year 2000

    Open Access•Fridolin Krausmann, Karlheinz Erb et al.•Ecological Economics•2008

  • Livestock, livelihoods and the environment

    Open Access•Mario Herrero, Philip K Thornton et al.•Current Opinion in Environmental…•2009

  • Croppers to livestock keepers

    Open Access•Peter G Jones, Philip K Thornton•Environmental Science & Policy•2008

  • Food consumption, diet shifts and associated non-CO2 greenhouse gases from agricultural production

    Open Access•Alexander Popp, Hermann Lotze‐campen et al.•Global Environmental Change•2010

  • Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models

    Open Access•Mario Herrero, Philip K Thornton et al.•Global Environmental Change•2014

  • Conservation of undisturbed natural forests and economic impacts on agriculture

    Open Access•Michael Krause, Hermann Lotze-Campen et al.•Land Use Policy•2013

Unique citing works11
Citations per year1
Citation span2015 - 2022 (8)
Citation velocityhistorical
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 11
Ethnos_APP • Open Source Project • MIT License • Frontend v2.0.0 • Privacy and Cookies • API Documentation: api.ethnos.app/docs • API Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17049435 • Frontend Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17050053 • cruz.rio.br • Expectantes Misericordiae