Have human activities changed the frequencies of absolute extreme temperatures in eastern China

Datos Bibliográficos

ID15545441
AutoresJun Wang (0000-0003-4485-7201, Chinese Academy of Sciences, autor de correspondencia), Simon F B Tett (0000-0001-7526-560X, National Centre for Atmospheric Science), Zhongwei Yan (0000-0003-0638-137X, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Jinming Feng (0000-0001-8634-950X, Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Año2017
Volumen13
Número1
Páginas014012-014012
Fecha de publicación2017-10-17
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
EditorialIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aa9404
OpenAlexW2766719764
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas3
Referencias citadas38

Extreme temperatures affect populous regions, like eastern China, causing substantial socio-economic losses. It is beneficial to explore whether the frequencies of absolute or threshold-based extreme temperatures have been changed by human activities, such as anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this study, we compared observed and multi-model-simulated changes in the frequencies of summer days, tropical nights, icy days and frosty nights in eastern China for the years 1960-2012 by using an optimal fingerprinting method. The observed long-term trends in the regional mean frequencies of these four indices were +2.36, +1.62, -0.94, -3.02 days decade -1 . The models performed better in simulating the observed frequency change in daytime extreme temperatures than nighttime ones. Anthropogenic influences are detectable in the observed frequency changes of these four temperature extreme indices. The influence of natural forcings could not be detected robustly in any indices. Further analysis found that the effects of GHGs changed the frequencies of summer days (tropical nights, icy days, frosty nights) by +3.48 1.45 (+2.99 1.35, -2.52 1.28, -4.11 1.48) days decade -1 . Other anthropogenic forcing agents (dominated by anthropogenic aerosols) offset the GHG effect and changed the frequencies of these four indices by -1.53 0.78, -1.49 0.94, +1.84 1.07, +1.45 1.26 days decade -1 , respectively. Little influence of natural forcings was found in the observed frequency changes of these four temperature extreme indices

Atmospheric sciences · Biology · China · Climate change · Climatology · Forcing (mathematics · Geography · Greenhouse gas · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Ecology · Geology