Future Antarctic marine accessibility in a warming world
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15545477 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Yaqi Hou (0009-0003-1082-4804, Sun Yat-sen University, corresponding author), Chao Min (0000-0002-4181-2107, Sun Yat-sen University, corresponding author), Yichen Lin (0000-0003-1112-2831, Sun Yat-sen University, corresponding author), Hao Luo (0000-0003-4261-3414, Sun Yat-sen University, corresponding author), Qi Shu (0000-0003-4781-571X, Ministry of Natural Resources, corresponding author), Jiping Liu (0000-0002-8338-8586, Sun Yat-sen University, corresponding author), Qinghua Yang (0000-0003-1358-8096, Sun Yat-sen University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 20 |
| Issue | 9 |
| Pages | 094016-094016 |
| Publication date | 2025-07-24 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/adf3ce |
| OpenAlex | W4412625225 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 70 |
Antarctic sea ice is projected to decline under continued global warming, reshaping marine accessibility in the Southern Ocean with far-reaching implications for navigation, ecosystem stability, and polar governance. Leveraging optimally selected sea ice projections from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6, we assess future Antarctic marine accessibility for open water and polar class 6 (PC6) vessels under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C warming scenarios. Results show significant increases in marine accessibility, with near-complete summer accessibility across the Southern Ocean in February, even under the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement target. Winter marine accessibility also increases, with over 50% of the Southern Ocean accessible for PC6 vessels at 3 °C warming. Spatially, the Eastern Route region, especially in the King Haakon VII Sea, is projected to exhibit the most significant increase in accessibility. Meanwhile, the South Shetland Islands and Antarctic Peninsula, which currently serve as important hubs for scientific research and logistical operations, are projected to experience increased year-round accessibility as global temperatures continue to rise. These findings provide insights that could support climate-smart marine spatial planning in the high seas
Biology · Climate change · Climatology · Global warming · Warming up · Aerospace Engineering and Energy Systems · Environmental Science · Marine animal studies overview · Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses · Geology · Oceanography
Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis
A new scenario framework for climate change research
The costs of achieving climate targets and the sources of uncertainty
Arctic marginal ice zone interannual variability and change point detection using two definitions (1983–2022)
Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations
Evaluation of Antarctic sea ice thickness and volume during 2003–2014 in CMIP6 using Envisat and CryoSat-2 observations
Tourism and heritage in Antarctica
Integrating climate change in ocean planning
Wildlife and oil in the Antarctic
Icebreaking polar class research vessels
Projected changes in sea ice and the navigability of the Arctic Passages under global warming of 2 °C and 3 °C
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |