Global to local impacts on atmospheric CO 2 from the Covid-19 lockdown, biosphere and weather variabilities

The worldwide lockdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in year 2020 led to an economic slowdown and a large reduction in fossil fuel CO 2 emissions (Le Quéré 2020 Nat. Clim. Change 10 647–53, Liu 2020 Nat. Commun. 11 ); however, it is unclear how much it would slow the increasing trend of atmospheric CO 2 concentration, the main driver of climate change, and whether this impact can be observed considering the large biosphere and weather variabilities. We used a state-of-the-art atmospheric transport model to simulate CO 2 , and the model was driven by a new daily fossil fuel emissions dataset and hourly biospheric fluxes from a carbon cycle model forced with observed climate variability. Our results show a 0.21 ppm decrease in the atmospheric column CO 2 anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere latitude band 0–45° N in March 2020, and an average of 0.14 ppm for the period of February–April 2020, which is the largest decrease in the last 10 years. A similar decrease was observed by the carbon observing satellite GOSAT (Yokota et al 2009 Sola 5 160–3). Using model sensitivity experiments, we further found that the COVID and weather variability are the major contributors to this CO 2 drawdown, and the biosphere showed a small positive anomaly. Measurements at marine boundary layer stations, such as Hawaii, exhibit 1–2 ppm anomalies, mostly due to weather and the biosphere. At the city scale, the on-road CO 2 enhancement measured in Beijing shows a reduction by 20–30 ppm, which is consistent with the drastically reduced traffic during the COVID lockdown. A stepwise drop of 20 ppm during the city-wide lockdown was observed in the city of Chengdu. The ability of our current carbon monitoring systems in detecting the small and short-lasting COVID signals at different policy relevant scales (country and city) against the background of fossil fuel CO 2 accumulated over the last two centuries is encouraging. The COVID-19 pandemic is an unintended experiment. Its impact suggests that to keep atmospheric CO 2 at a climate-safe level will require sustained effort of similar magnitude and improved accuracy, as well as expanded spatiotemporal coverage of our monitoring systems

Anomaly (physics · Atmospheric sciences · Biosphere · Biosphere model · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Greenhouse gas · Northern Hemisphere · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate Change and Health Impacts · COVID-19 impact on air quality · Environmental Science · Geology · Oceanography

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