Do responses to different anthropogenic forcings add linearly in climate models
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15545589 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Kate Marvel (0000-0002-9771-6720, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, corresponding author), Gavin A Schmidt (0000-0002-2258-0486, Goddard Institute for Space Studies), Drew Shindell (0000-0003-1552-4715, Duke University), C Bonfils (0000-0002-4674-5708, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), Allegra N LeGrande (0000-0002-5295-0062, Goddard Institute for Space Studies), Larissa Nazarenko (0000-0003-3172-9358, Goddard Institute for Space Studies), Kostas Tsigaridis (0000-0001-5328-819X, Columbia University) |
| Year | 2015 |
| Volume | 10 |
| Issue | 10 |
| Pages | 104010-104010 |
| Publication date | 2015-10-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104010 |
| OpenAlex | W2288631696 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 30 |
Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual forcings. Here, we use the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations from the CMIP5 archive to test this assumption for multi-year trends in global-average, annual-average temperature and precipitation at multiple timescales. We find that responses in models forced by pre-computed aerosol and ozone concentrations are generally additive across forcings. However, we demonstrate that there are significant nonlinearities in precipitation responses to different forcings in a configuration of the GISS model that interactively computes these concentrations from precursor emissions. We attribute these to differences in ozone forcing arising from interactions between forcing agents. Our results suggest that attribution to specific forcings may be complicated in a model with fully interactive chemistry and may provide motivation for other modeling groups to conduct further single-forcing experiments
Aerosol · Atmospheric sciences · Attribution · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Forcing (mathematics · Geography · Meteorology · Precipitation · Radiative forcing · Scaling · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Mathematics · Geology
| Citations per year | 0.33 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2020 - 2021 (2) |
| Highly cited | No |