US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15545680 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Ian Sue Wing (0000-0003-1177-3589, Boston University, corresponding author), Erwan Monier (0000-0001-5533-6570, Joint Global Change Research Institute), Ari Stern, Anupriya Mundra (Joint Global Change Research Institute) |
| Year | 2015 |
| Volume | 10 |
| Issue | 11 |
| Pages | 115002-115002 |
| Publication date | 2015-10-28 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/115002 |
| OpenAlex | W1854696836 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 5 |
| References cited | 34 |
We estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops' yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming's economic effects on major crops are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B)
Agriculture · Carbon dioxide · Carbon sequestration · Climate change · Climate change mitigation · Economics · Global warming · Greenhouse gas · Natural resource economics · Yield (engineering · Agricultural risk and resilience · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Environmental Science · Ecology
Türkiye’de İklim Değişikliği ile Şeker Pancarı Üretimi Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi
Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields
Empirical estimation of weather-driven yield shocks using biophysical characteristics for U.S. rainfed and irrigated maize, soybeans, and winter wheat
Uncertainty in future agro-climate projections in the United States and benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation
Future climate impacts on global agricultural yields over the 21st century
Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change
Mirca2000—Global monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000
Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100
Climate change effects on agriculture
Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison
The Economic Impacts of Climate Change
The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture
Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change Impacts
Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry
Regional disparities in the CO 2 fertilization effect and implications for crop yields
Long-term impacts of major water storage facilities on agriculture and the natural environment
| Citations per year | 0.5 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2016 - 2022 (7) |
| Highly cited | No |